Bitcoin under fire: US stock market crash could send BTC down to $10,000
The cryptocurrency market is on the verge of a serious correction. My analysis shows that Bitcoin risks becoming the main victim of a potential reversal in the U.S. stock market. This conclusion is drawn from observations by several independent analysts, whose forecasts, published ahead of U.S. Independence Day on July 4, form a troubling chain.
The Century-Long Stock Market Cycle: Euphoria Is Near
One of the key signals is the long-term pattern of the S&P 500 index. Historical data shows that technology booms last about 24–25 years, followed by a decade of stagnation. The current cycle, which began in 2009 with the era of smartphones and e-commerce, would logically end around 2033. This means the bull market has about seven years left, but as history shows, the steepest growth phases occur at the end, and such markets die not from old age, but from euphoria.
Record Capital Inflows: The Last Wave?
At the same time, we are witnessing unprecedented demand for U.S. stocks. The cumulative inflow from global investment funds since the start of the year has reached 2.5% of their total assets under management. This figure has more than doubled since May and significantly exceeds the average level for 2002–2025. The current pace has already surpassed the full-year result typical for the average half of the years since 2002. This suggests we are in the late, euphoric phase of the cycle.
Bitcoin as a Hostage: Lagging and Vulnerability
The most alarming factor is Bitcoin's direct dependence on the stock market's dynamics. My analysis confirms that the resilience of all commodity and crypto assets directly depends on whether U.S. securities continue to rise. If the stock market fails to hold above current levels, Bitcoin will likely fall closer to $10,000. For comparison, gold could retreat to $3,000 per ounce, and WTI oil could drop below $50 per barrel.
Notably, over the year leading up to July 4, Bitcoin lost about 40%, while oil remained roughly flat. This shows that the cryptocurrency is weakening even against the backdrop of a strong stock market. Any reversal will hit it the hardest.
My conclusion: Bitcoin's current underperformance makes it particularly vulnerable at the first sign of a shift in stock market sentiment. Investors should prepare for a potential correction to $10,000 if euphoria on U.S. exchanges turns into panic.