14 out of 17 on-chain indicators signal a bitcoin bottom: a rare convergence
The Bitcoin market is sending a powerful signal: 14 out of 17 key on-chain indicators point to the formation of a local bottom. This is a rare analytical event where the majority of metrics simultaneously converge in the "Bottom" zone. Such a convergence of signals is not just a coincidence, but, in my opinion, one of the most reliable signs of an imminent trend reversal.
What the metrics show in the "bottom" phase
The majority of indicators, including the adjusted MVRV ratio (market value to realized value), are in the range of values from 0 to 19. This suggests that the asset is trading near or below its fair value. In particular, the Balanced Price and Delta Price—models that historically indicate undervaluation—are also in this zone.
Special attention should be paid to the MVRV Z-Score, which has dropped to 6. This indicator statistically compares market and realized capitalization, and its current value is close to levels that preceded major upward movements in the past. The Long-Term Supply MVRV and Realized Price also confirm this signal.
Extreme indicators and bearish signals
Some metrics show extremely low values. For example, the Percentage Supply in Profit and Percentage UTXOs in Profit have fallen to 0. This indicates that the vast majority of coins are at or near the break-even point. Historically, such a situation precedes strong reversals, as sellers exhaust their potential.
However, not all indicators have reached the bottom. Three of them (LTS NUPL, the capitalization-to-thermocap ratio, and net unrealized loss/profit) remain in the bearish phase for now. This suggests that long-term holders are still booking some profit, and miners are not in extreme loss. Nevertheless, the 30-day dynamics show that these metrics are also gradually declining, approaching the bottom zone.
Overall, the picture is extremely interesting. The convergence of so many indicators in the bottom zone is a rare and significant event. The remaining bearish signals may be the last resistance before a reversal. Given the historical accuracy of such patterns, I believe the current situation creates highly attractive opportunities for market entry with a medium-term perspective.