Active Bitcoin investors are facing a 20% loss — what on-chain analytics says
The Bitcoin market continues to face pressure: active investors in the leading cryptocurrency are on average down 20%. This is based on an analysis of on-chain metrics, particularly the AVIV (Active Value to Investor Value) ratio, which indicates a zone of depreciation.
To accurately assess the current market situation, it is important to focus not on all holders, but specifically on active supply. The key indicator here is the True Market Mean (TMM). This metric excludes coins that have not moved for a long time and whose cost basis is no longer relevant to current prices. Some of these coins are considered partially lost, making them "illiquid" for analysis.
What True Market Mean and AVIV Show
Currently, the TMM is estimated at around $76,700 and acts as a resistance level. In May, this led many investors to exit the market without a loss rather than continue holding losing positions. The AVIV ratio, in turn, reflects the current market valuation relative to the cost basis of the active supply. This indicator is currently hovering around 0.8 — a zone of depreciation.
A value of 0.8 means that the active group of investors is, on average, at a loss of 20%. This is a notable level, but it is not yet comparable to the depths of past bear markets.
Why This Is Not Yet the Bottom
In previous cycles, the AVIV ratio dropped to 0.5–0.6, corresponding to losses of 40–50%, or twice as deep as current levels. Analysts note that for a Bitcoin rebound, it is not necessary to reach such a level of depreciation. This is due to the scale of adoption the asset has achieved in the current cycle.
At the same time, I urge caution. Nothing so far contradicts Bitcoin's cyclical nature. Even the influx of institutional investors and the launch of ETFs have not changed the fundamental rules of the game. No matter how many billions of dollars flow into the market, Bitcoin still dictates its own laws.
My expert conclusion: The current situation is a classic consolidation phase within the cycle, where the market "shakes out" weak hands. A 20% loss for active investors is a serious signal, but it is not critical for the long-term bullish trend. Maintaining "humility before cycles" is the best strategy in conditions where even institutional capital does not override the laws of on-chain dynamics.