Bitcoin repeats the 2022 scenario: a bull trap or a harbinger of a new bottom?
The market for the first cryptocurrency is once again showing a frightening resemblance to the dynamics of 2022. In my assessment, the current price recovery after the June local low is highly likely a classic bull trap, which will be followed by a final capitulation and a trend reversal only in the third or fourth quarter.
Fractal Similarity: The Bounce Before the Crash
Analysis of the price structure indicates an almost mirror-like repetition of the scenario from two years ago. The June bottom, then a sharp bounce that retail investors hastily mistake for a reversal signal, and finally a decisive drop with a real capitulation of holders. In 2022, after a similar June low, Bitcoin lost about another 28% in November-December. Now we are seeing the same indicators: testing the 200-day moving average, RSI divergence, and growing euphoria among retail traders actively opening long positions.
Key Levels and Tactics
The critical level at the moment is the $65,000 mark. If buyers fail to consolidate above it, the current upward impulse will be exhausted. In the event of a breakout upward to the $67,000–$70,000 zone, the market will likely gather liquidity from short positions, after which a sharp reversal will follow. This is the ideal scenario for forming a large-scale liquidation trap.
Arguments for a New Bottom
Fundamental data also supports my analysis. The Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) has fallen to a 20-month low at -0.35. Such values were only seen in December 2022, after the FTX collapse, when the price dropped below $16,000. Historically, this indicator has accurately identified moments of global bottom formation, as was the case in 2015 and 2019.
Additionally, the current Bitcoin price is only 16% above its realized price. At this level of proximity to the market's "cost basis," historical returns six months later averaged 41%, and one year later, 81%. However, before we see these numbers, we are likely to face another painful sell-off that will shake out the last "paper" bulls from the market.
My professional opinion: The current situation reminds me of the final phase of a bear market, when hope gives way to despair. Ignoring this fractal and aggressively buying at current levels is an extremely risky strategy. It is wiser to either wait for confirmation of a breakout above $70,000 with consolidation, or conversely, for the final capitulation to enter the market with attractive long-term prospects.