Active Bitcoin holders recorded a loss of 20%: analysis of on-chain indicators
The Bitcoin market continues to face pressure: active investors who are actually involved in trading and moving coins are, on average, at a 20% loss. This follows from an analysis of on-chain metrics, particularly the AVIV (Active Value to Investor Value) ratio, which has now settled in the depreciation zone.
The key indicator for assessing the current situation is the True Market Mean (TMM). Unlike standard price averages, the TMM excludes coins that have not moved for a long time and are effectively lost or illiquid. Thus, it reflects the real average price only for the active supply.
True Market Mean as a Resistance Level
Currently, the TMM is estimated at approximately $76,700. This level has already proven to be a resistance zone in May, when many market participants chose to exit positions without a loss rather than continue holding the asset. The current market price of Bitcoin is below this threshold, confirming the pressure on the active holder group.
The AVIV ratio, which compares the current market value of the active supply to its cost basis, is now at around 0.8. This means the average active investor is sitting at a 20% loss. However, by historical standards, this is not yet the bottom. In previous bear cycles, AVIV dropped to 0.5–0.6, corresponding to losses of 40–50%.
Cycles Remain Cycles
Despite the influx of institutional capital and the launch of ETFs, Bitcoin's basic cyclicality has not changed. Analysts emphasize: no matter how many billions of dollars flow into the market, the asset continues to dictate its own rules. Reaching extreme levels of depreciation (as in past cycles) is not necessary for a reversal, but the current situation requires market participants to exercise restraint and understand the cyclical nature of the asset.
Cryptalist's Comment: The AVIV indicator at 0.8 is a signal that cannot be ignored. It indicates that active market participants are under pressure, but the potential for further decline still remains. The market has not yet gone through a full capitulation cycle, and investors should prepare for possible volatility rather than an immediate rebound.