Bitcoin repeats the 2022 scenario: is a "bull trap" and final capitulation coming?
An analysis of Bitcoin's dynamics reveals a frightening similarity to the events of 2022. The current recovery from the June bottom could be the biggest "bull trap" of this cycle, followed by a sharp reversal downward and a mass capitulation of retail investors.
Bitcoin's price model almost mirrors the 2022 scenario: a June bottom, a subsequent bounce that retail traders perceive as a rescue, and then a decisive drop with a real capitulation. Currently, BTC is retesting the 200-day moving average. Retail is actively opening long positions, and market euphoria is building. However, in my observation, this rally will be followed by a sharp reversal.
Fractal Similarity and Historical Parallels
The fractal similarity of the charts deserves special attention: the June bottom, a false recovery, RSI divergence, and a final push downward before the real reversal. In 2022, after the June low, Bitcoin lost another approximately 28% in November-December. If the current fractal repeats, we can expect a final crash with long liquidations, after which a reversal will only begin in the third or fourth quarter.
Many analysts are already describing their tactics: entering a long position targeting $67,000–70,000, where the market will gather liquidity, and then accumulating shorts. The key level is $65,000: if it fails to hold above this level, it will be a signal for an early exit from longs and the start of short positioning.
Arguments for a New Bottom
On-chain metric data confirms the bearish scenario. The Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) has fallen to a 20-month low of -0.35. This level has not been seen since December 2022, when Bitcoin dropped below $16,000 after the FTX collapse. Historically, this indicator has accurately identified bottoms: a similar pattern occurred in 2015 and 2019, followed by a reversal.
Additionally, Bitcoin is trading only 16% above its realized price. Historically, at such proximity to this zone, the average return was 41% after six months and 81% after a year. However, in the current macroeconomic conditions, a repeat of this scenario is unlikely.
My conclusion: The market is in a dangerous zone. Retail investors succumbing to euphoria risk falling into a classic "bull trap." Professional traders should be prepared for a sharp decline and view the current rise as an opportunity for hedging or opening short positions. History does not repeat itself, but it often rhymes — and these rhymes are getting louder.