Bitcoin investors in the red: active market participants have lost 20% in capital
The Bitcoin market is once again showing signs of a deep correction. According to the latest data, active investors in the leading cryptocurrency are, on average, at a 20% loss. This is a worrying signal that requires close attention from market participants.
To assess the real state of the market, one should look not at all holders, but at active supply. The key indicator here is the True Market Mean (TMM) — a metric reflecting the average price of coins that are actually in circulation. It excludes long-term and lost assets that no longer influence current dynamics.
Currently, the TMM is estimated at around $76,700. This level acts as a resistance zone, as clearly seen in May, when many investors chose to lock in positions without a loss rather than continue holding them.
The combination of TMM with the AVIV ratio (Active Value to Investor Value) provides an even clearer picture. This indicator is currently hovering around the 0.8 mark, corresponding to a depreciation zone. In other words, the active group of investors is valued by the market at 20% below its cost basis.
However, as historical data shows, the current situation is not yet the bottom. In previous bear cycles, the AVIV ratio dropped to 0.5–0.6, corresponding to losses of 40–50%. This is twice as deep as current values.
Nevertheless, Bitcoin does not necessarily need to reach such extreme levels for a reversal. The scale of asset adoption in the current cycle is significantly higher than in the past. But this does not negate cyclicity. Even the influx of institutional capital and ETFs has not changed the fundamental rules of the game. Bitcoin still dictates its own terms, and billions of dollars in liquidity cannot override market cycles.
My expert opinion: The current situation is a classic redistribution phase, where the market "washes out" weak hands. A 20% loss for active participants is a serious but not critical level. However, maintaining "humility before cycles" is the best strategy. Whether to buy into panic or wait for the bottom is your decision, but history teaches that patience and discipline are rewarded.