Active Bitcoin holders are recording a 20% loss: what on-chain analytics says
The Bitcoin market is once again sending warning signals, but not for all participants. My analysis of on-chain data shows that active investors—those who are actually moving coins—are on average at a 20% loss. This conclusion is supported by the AVIV (Active Value to Investor Value) metric, which is currently entrenched in the depreciation zone.
True Market Mean: The Key to Understanding the Situation
To get an objective picture, I use the True Market Mean (TMM) indicator. Unlike standard average prices, TMM excludes from calculations all coins that have not moved for a long time and are effectively lost or illiquid. Currently, TMM is estimated at around $76,700, and this level acts as strong resistance. In May, many investors chose to exit positions at this level without a loss rather than hold the asset further.
The AVIV ratio, which reflects the current market valuation relative to the cost basis of the active supply, is currently hovering around 0.8. This is clearly a depreciation zone, meaning an average loss of 20% for the active group. However, as I see from historical data, this is not yet the bottom.
Historical Context: Why Panic Is Premature
In previous bear cycles, AVIV dropped to 0.5–0.6, corresponding to losses of 40–50%. The current level is twice as mild. This suggests that the market has not yet reached extreme capitulation values. Nevertheless, for a bounce, Bitcoin does not necessarily need to repeat these lows—the scale of asset adoption in the current cycle has grown significantly.
My position: despite the influx of institutional capital and the launch of ETFs, Bitcoin's basic cyclicality remains unchanged. No matter how many billions flow into the market, the asset dictates its own rules. In such a situation, investors should maintain humility before cycles and not try to predict the bottom based on external factors.
Expert opinion from Cryptalist: The current drawdown of active investors is not an anomaly but a standard stage of the market cycle. However, I advise not to rule out the possibility of further decline. The $76,700 level on TMM remains a key barrier, and a breakout above it would be the first bullish signal. Until that happens, a wait-and-see strategy seems the most reasonable.