World Cup 2026 prediction markets break records: total betting volume on Polymarket and Kalshi approaches $5 billion
Prediction markets continue to show explosive growth, with the 2026 FIFA World Cup becoming a major catalyst for this trend. The total betting volume on the tournament winner across two leading platforms — Polymarket and Kalshi — has nearly reached the $5 billion mark. These are not just numbers, but a clear signal that decentralized and regulated prediction markets are becoming a mainstream tool for assessing probabilities of large-scale sporting events.
Polymarket Holds the Lead with $4 Billion
On Polymarket, the volume for the "2026 World Cup Winner" market stands at an impressive $3.97 billion. According to platform data, the undisputed favorite is the French national team, with a 33% probability of winning. Recently, France's chances have increased by 16%, indicating a consolidation of opinions among major players. Argentina is in second place (18%, up by 4 points), and England rounds out the top three with 15%. Spain, in fourth place (13%), lost 3% probability over the past day, which may suggest a liquidity shift towards other assets.
Interestingly, in terms of daily trading volume, the leading teams are not among the top favorites by probability. The U.S. accounted for $135.76 million, Morocco for $132.59 million, and Norway for $108.37 million. This is a classic pattern of "retail" demand, where emotional support and patriotism often dominate over cold probability calculations.
Kalshi: $1 Billion and a Similar Landscape
The regulated platform Kalshi, in turn, recorded a volume of $1.01 billion for the same event. The distribution of favorites is nearly identical: France leads with 34.2% (a decrease of 0.5% over the day), Argentina at 18.4%, and England at 14.2% (a notable increase of 7.7 points). Spain holds steady at 13%, while Portugal and Norway are valued at 6.4% and 5.4%, respectively.
The alignment of estimates on two independent platforms is a strong analytical signal. This means the market has reached a high degree of consensus regarding the current favorites, and any deviations will be driven solely by news flow or match results.
Scaling of Prediction Markets
The fact that two competing markets have collectively attracted nearly $5 billion for a single event speaks to the immense trust in this tool. Polymarket, as the volume leader, demonstrates that decentralized platforms can compete with traditional bookmakers and even surpass them in transparency and accessibility. Kalshi, operating within U.S. regulatory frameworks, confirms that institutional investors are also actively entering this sector.
My analysis: The further dynamics of betting will directly reflect the tournament's progress. If France continues to live up to its favorite status, volumes on Polymarket could exceed $5 billion before the final. However, the sharp increase in bets on underdogs (USA, Morocco) in daily volumes indicates high volatility and the market's readiness for surprises. Investors should closely monitor these trends — they could serve as indicators of hidden insider expectations.