Pressure on Bitcoin comes from investors, not miners: an analysis of on-chain metrics
The current selling pressure on the Bitcoin market has a clear source, and it is not miners. An analysis of three key on-chain indicators points to the main supply being formed by the actions of short-term investors, while miners and long-term holders demonstrate restraint.
Three Signals of One Picture
The combination of metrics paints a single picture of growing, but not panicked, pressure. First, the net inflow of Bitcoin to Binance, the world's largest exchange, stands at +623 BTC. This means more coins are arriving on the platform than being withdrawn, which is a classic sign of preparation for sales.
Second, the Puell Multiple indicator is at 0.62. This metric compares miners' daily revenue to its 365-day moving average. A value below 1 indicates that mining profitability is below the historical norm. However, despite the profit squeeze, miners are not rushing to offload their coins, preferring to hold onto their assets.
Third, the NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss) ratio is 0.16. This metric shows the ratio of unrealized profit to loss for all holders. A value of 0.16 is in the "hope" zone, which is far from the euphoria typical of market peaks. Many participants are either selling for a small profit or even locking in losses.
Who Is Selling?
The combination of this data unequivocally indicates that the pressure comes from retail and short-term investors, not from institutional miners or hodlers. The current situation is fundamentally different from periods when crashes were triggered by mass dumps of coins by miners.
The increase in balances on Binance reflects caution and a "shifting" of assets into liquidity, rather than a panicked flight. This makes the current correction less alarming than it might seem at first glance. Miners, operating in a zone of reduced profitability, are effectively supporting the market by refusing to sell at a loss.
Expert Commentary: The key question now is whether the inflow of coins to exchanges will continue. If investors stop and start withdrawing funds back to cold wallets, this would become a powerful bullish signal. For now, the market is balancing in an accumulation phase, where miners' patience counters the crowd's nervousness.