Prediction markets break records: bets on the 2026 World Cup winner approach $5 billion
The total volume of bets on the outcome of the 2026 FIFA World Cup on two leading prediction market platforms — Polymarket and Kalshi — has nearly reached the $5 billion mark. This phenomenal figure clearly demonstrates how major sporting events are becoming a powerful catalyst for the decentralized and regulated prediction industry.
According to data from the platforms themselves, Polymarket plays a dominant role, with the market volume for "2026 World Cup Winner" reaching nearly $4 billion. Kalshi, in turn, has confidently surpassed the $1 billion threshold. This difference in scale reflects not only popularity but also varying levels of audience engagement: Polymarket attracts more speculative and global capital, while Kalshi is focused on the regulated US market.
Favorites: Consensus Across Both Platforms
Notably, both platforms show nearly identical assessments of the favorites, which reinforces the significance of this signal for the market. On Polymarket, the undisputed leader is France with a 33% probability of winning, and their chances have increased by 16 percentage points recently. On Kalshi, France is rated at 34.2%.
The second position on both platforms is held by Argentina (18% on Polymarket and 18.4% on Kalshi), while England rounds out the top three (15% and 14.2%, respectively). Interestingly, England's chances on Kalshi surged by 7.7 points in a single day, which could indicate an influx of large bets from insiders or a reaction to news from the team's camp.
Spain (13% on both platforms) and Portugal (6.4% on Kalshi) complete the top five main contenders.
Volume Anomalies: Bets Against the Favorites
A curious detail: the largest trading volume over the past 24 hours on Polymarket did not involve the race leaders at all. The absolute daily volume record was set by bets on the US national team — $135.76 million. They are followed by Morocco ($132.59 million) and Norway ($108.37 million). Yet their chances of winning are rated extremely low. This is a classic example of "volume-driven bets": traders actively trade contracts on underdogs, trying to catch a sharp price movement in the event of an upset, rather than making long-term predictions for victory.
Cryptalist Analysis
The alignment of assessments on two independent platforms is a powerful fundamental signal. The market almost unanimously sees France as the main favorite, with Argentina and England as the primary contenders for a spot in the final. However, the anomalously high trading volume on underdogs indicates high volatility and speculative interest. As the tournament approaches and playoff matches begin, we will see sharp shifts in assessments, especially if any "dark horses" manage to pull off an upset. Investors should be prepared for the fact that the current 33% for France is not an absolute truth, but merely the current equilibrium point of supply and demand.