Bernstein Forecast: Bitcoin at $150,000 by Year-End — a Realistic Target Amid Market Maturity
Analysts at Bernstein reaffirm their "ambitious" Bitcoin forecast, maintaining a target of $150,000 by the end of this year. They characterize the current correction, which has reached 54% from the October peak, as "mild" by historical standards. Indeed, in past bear phases, declines reached 75–90%, and the downturns themselves lasted 12–15 months. The current correction has been ongoing for about three quarters, indicating the growing maturity of the crypto market, although the complete end of the downturn is not yet apparent.
Fundamental Factors: Capital Flows and Corporate Demand
Fundamental indicators remain the key driver for achieving the target. Since the beginning of 2026, total capital inflows through corporate Bitcoin treasuries and spot ETFs have amounted to approximately $10 billion. Despite an outflow of $5.5 billion from exchange-traded funds, this represents limited pressure against the backdrop of $74 billion in assets. The main source of demand is the company Strategy, which has acquired about 175,000 BTC (~$14 billion) since January, increasing its reserves to 847,363 BTC. The company's debt burden is only 13% of the value of its Bitcoin portfolio, and it has enough liquidity for 17 months to service interest payments and dividends. At the same time, Strategy retains the ability to sell up to $1.25 billion worth of Bitcoin to finance these obligations.
Corporate purchases offset sales by public miners, who are reallocating capital to AI infrastructure and data centers. Additional market support could come from regulatory changes in the US: the advancement of the GENIUS Act on stablecoins, the launch of perpetual crypto futures through Kalshi and Coinbase, and the growth of the RWA market to $52 billion. The probability of the Clarity Act being passed by the end of 2026 is estimated at 50%.
Historical Signal: Over 50% of Supply at a Loss
Analysts at K33 also note positive signals. Currently, more than half of Bitcoin's supply is at a loss — the indicator has risen from 30% to 50% over the month. Historically, such values were observed only in the late stages of bear phases and preceded the formation of a bottom: in 2018 — after 23 days, in 2022 — after 13 days, in 2017 — after 31 days. The exception was 2014, when it took 101 days to reach the bottom, and the price fell another 46%.
Additional confirmation comes from Bitcoin returning to the 200-week moving average — a level that accompanied all previous market lows. The RSI index has dropped to its lowest since November 2018, and the fear and greed index has reached 8 ("extreme fear"). Meanwhile, long-term holders control a record 79% of the circulating supply, indicating sustained long-term demand.
My comment: Despite massive outflows from exchange-traded products (85,600 BTC over four weeks), fundamental indicators — corporate purchases, a record share of long-term holders, and historical signals — suggest that the $60,000 area could be the bottom of the current cycle. Bernstein's forecast of $150,000 looks ambitious, but if current trends persist, it is quite achievable. However, investors should consider that the current cycle may differ from previous ones, and the key factor will remain the regulatory environment in the US.