Crypto news

Despite the prolonged correction that has already lasted about three quarters, Bernstein analysts maintain their "ambitious" forecast for bitcoin. The key target by the end of the year is the $150,000 mark. They characterize the current 54% decline from the October peak as "mild" by historical standards.

For context: in previous bear cycles, drawdowns from local highs reached 75–90%, and the decline phases themselves stretched over 12–15 months. In my opinion, the current dynamics indeed point to increased market resilience, but it is still premature to talk about a complete end to the correction.

Fundamental Growth Drivers

Bernstein emphasizes that fundamental factors remain bullish. Since the beginning of 2026, total capital inflows through corporate bitcoin treasuries and spot ETFs have amounted to about $10 billion. Meanwhile, outflows from ETFs ($5.5 billion) appear insignificant against the backdrop of assets under management of $74 billion.

The key source of demand remains the company Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy). Since January, it has acquired approximately 175,000 BTC (~$14 billion), bringing reserves to 847,363 BTC. The company's debt load is about 13% of the value of its bitcoin portfolio, and liquidity is sufficient for 17 months to service interest payments and dividends. Additionally, Strategy retains the ability to sell bitcoins worth up to $1.25 billion to finance its obligations.

Strategy's purchases offset sales by public miners, who are reallocating capital to AI infrastructure and data centers. Additional market support could come from regulatory changes in the US: the advancement of the GENIUS Act on stablecoins, the launch of perpetual crypto futures through Kalshi and Coinbase, and the growth of the RWA market to $52 billion. The probability of the Clarity Act being passed by the end of 2026 is estimated at 50%.

Historical Signal and K33's Position

K33 analysts also see signs of a near bottom. According to their data, over 50% of bitcoin's supply is currently at a loss — the figure has risen from 30% over the past month. Historically, such values were observed only in the late stages of bear phases: in 2018 and 2022, the bottom formed 23 and 13 days after the signal, respectively, and in 2017 — after 31 days. The exception was 2014, when it took 101 days to reach the bottom, and the price fell another 46%.

Additional confirmation comes from bitcoin returning to the 200-week moving average — a level that accompanied all previous market bottoms. The RSI has dropped to its lowest since November 2018, and the fear and greed index has fallen to 8 ("extreme fear").

However, K33 warns that the current cycle may differ: over four weeks, about 85,600 BTC have been withdrawn from exchange-traded crypto products — the largest outflow in history. Despite this, long-term holders control a record 79% of the circulating supply, indicating sustained long-term demand. In their view, the $60,000 area could already serve as a reference point for accumulation.

My expert commentary: The combination of macroeconomic uncertainty and institutional accumulation creates a unique situation. I believe that the $60,000 level could indeed become a local bottom, but we will only get final confirmation after breaking through the $75,000–$80,000 zone. Bernstein's forecast of $150,000 by the end of the year looks ambitious but not fantastical, given historical patterns after deep corrections.