Analysts at Bernstein reaffirm their $150,000 target for Bitcoin, despite the deep correction.
Against the backdrop of an ongoing correction that has lasted for about three quarters, leading analysts at Bernstein maintain an "ambitious" forecast for bitcoin, setting a year-end target of $150,000. They characterize the 54% decline from the October 2025 peak as "mild" by historical standards.
My analysis confirms that the current drawdown indeed appears moderate. In previous bear phases, bitcoin lost between 75% and 90% from local highs, with corrections stretching over 12–15 months. What we are observing now rather indicates increased market maturity, although the full completion of the downturn is not yet obvious.
Fundamental drivers remain in place
The key factor supporting the bullish scenario is capital flows. Since the start of the year, total inflows through corporate bitcoin treasuries and spot ETFs have amounted to about $10 billion. Yes, investors have withdrawn $5.5 billion from exchange-traded funds, but given the $74 billion in assets under management of these structures, such outflows are quite limited.
The main source of demand remains Strategy. Since January, the company has acquired approximately 175,000 BTC (~$14 billion), bringing reserves to 847,363 BTC. The company's debt burden is only about 13% of the value of its bitcoin portfolio, and its available liquidity is sufficient to cover interest payments and dividends for more than 17 months. Additionally, Strategy has the ability to sell bitcoins worth up to $1.25 billion to finance these obligations.
Strategy's purchases in 2026 also offset sales by public miners, some of which reallocated capital to AI infrastructure and data centers. Additional market support could come from changes in U.S. regulation — the advancement of the GENIUS Act on stablecoins, the launch of perpetual crypto futures through Kalshi and Coinbase, and the growth of the RWA market to $52 billion. The probability of the Clarity Act being passed before the end of 2026 is estimated at 50%.
Historical signal points to a near bottom
Specialists from K33 presented a similar conclusion based on another metric. Currently, more than half of bitcoin's supply is at a loss — over the month, the figure rose from 30% to over 50%. Historically, such values were observed only in the late stages of bear phases and usually preceded the formation of a bottom within a few weeks. In the 2018 and 2022 cycles, the low was reached 23 and 13 days after the signal appeared, respectively, and in 2017, 31 days later.
Additional confirmation comes from bitcoin returning to the 200-week moving average — a level that accompanied all previous market bottoms. The RSI has dropped to its lowest since November 2018, and the fear and greed index has reached 8 ("extreme fear").
Despite massive capital outflows from exchange-traded crypto products (85,600 BTC over four weeks — the largest figure in history), long-term holders continue to accumulate coins and now control about 79% of the circulating supply. This is a record share, which K33 views as a sign of sustained long-term demand.
My professional opinion: The combination of historical bottom signals, institutional demand through Strategy, and potential regulatory changes indeed forms a compelling foundation for bitcoin's recovery. However, I would note that the current cycle differs from previous ones — the scale of ETF outflows and macroeconomic uncertainty could prolong the consolidation process. Nevertheless, the $60,000 area may already serve as a reference point for long-term accumulation.