Bitcoin at $150,000 by year-end: Bernstein experts see fundamental reasons for growth
Bernstein analysts maintain an "ambitious" forecast for the first cryptocurrency, setting a year-end target of $150,000. Despite the current 54% correction from the October peak, experts describe this decline as "mild" compared to historical bear phases, which previously lasted 12–15 months and saw drawdowns of 75–90%. The current correction has been ongoing for about three quarters, indicating market maturity, although the full end of the downturn has not yet been confirmed.
Fundamental Drivers: Capital and Regulation
A key factor supporting the forecast remains capital flows. Since the start of the year, total inflows through corporate bitcoin treasuries and spot ETFs have amounted to approximately $10 billion. Although $5.5 billion has been withdrawn from exchange-traded funds, this outflow is insignificant relative to the $74 billion in assets under management of these structures. The primary driver of demand is Strategy, which has acquired about 175,000 BTC (~$14 billion) since January, bringing its reserves to 847,363 BTC. The company's debt burden is estimated at only 13% of its bitcoin portfolio's value, and its liquidity is sufficient to cover dividends and interest payments for more than 17 months. The company could also sell up to $1.25 billion worth of bitcoin to finance its obligations.
It is important to note that Strategy's purchases in 2026 offset sales by public miners, who are reallocating capital to AI infrastructure and data centers. Additional market support could come from changes in U.S. regulation, including the advancement of the GENIUS Act on stablecoins, the launch of perpetual crypto futures on Kalshi and Coinbase, and the growth of the real-world assets (RWA) market to $52 billion. The probability of the Clarity Act being passed by the end of 2026 is estimated at 50%.
Historical Signal: Is the Bottom Near?
Similar conclusions are presented by specialists from K33. Currently, more than half of bitcoin's supply is at a loss — the metric has risen from 30% to over 50% in a month. Historically, such values have only been observed in the late stages of bear phases and preceded the formation of a bottom within a few weeks. In the 2018 and 2022 cycles, the low was reached 23 and 13 days after the signal appeared, respectively, and in 2017, it came 31 days later. The exception was 2014, when it took 101 days to reach the final bottom, and the price fell an additional 46%.
Additional confirmation comes from bitcoin's return to the 200-week moving average — a level that accompanied all previous market bottoms. The RSI index has dropped to its lowest since November 2018, and the fear and greed index has reached 8 ("extreme fear"). However, K33 emphasizes that the current cycle may differ due to massive capital outflows from exchange-traded crypto products: over four weeks, investors withdrew about 85,600 BTC — the largest figure in history. Despite this, long-term holders continue to accumulate coins and control a record 79% of the circulating supply, which is seen as a sign of sustained long-term demand.
My analysis: Bernstein's $150,000 forecast looks ambitious but not without merit. The key factor remains institutional demand, especially from Strategy, which offsets the weakness of retail investors. However, risks remain: if ETF outflows intensify or regulatory initiatives stall, the correction could drag on. According to K33, the $60,000 area may already serve as a reference point for long-term accumulation, but I would recommend investors be prepared for volatility in the coming weeks.