Analysts at Bernstein reaffirm their $150,000 target for Bitcoin: the correction is merely a "soft" phase of market maturity.
Despite the current correction, which has been ongoing for about three quarters, the Bernstein analyst team maintains its "ambitious" forecast for Bitcoin. The main target by the end of the year is the $150,000 mark. They characterize the 54% drawdown from the October peak as "mild."
Comparing it to historical bear phases, which typically lasted 12–15 months and led to declines of 75–90%, the current dynamics look significantly more restrained. In my opinion, this indicates the growing maturity of the crypto market and its adaptation to macroeconomic shocks. However, Bernstein experts rightly note that it is not yet possible to assert with certainty that the downturn is fully complete.
Fundamental Factors: Capital Flows and Institutional Strategy
The key driver for recovery and subsequent growth remains capital inflows. Since the beginning of the year, the total inflow through corporate Bitcoin treasuries and spot ETFs has been about $10 billion. Meanwhile, investors withdrew $5.5 billion from exchange-traded funds — against the backdrop of $74 billion in assets, this is a limited outflow that is fully offset by corporate purchases.
The main source of demand remains Strategy. Since January, the company has acquired about 175,000 BTC (~$14 billion), bringing its reserves to 847,363 BTC. Notably, the company's debt burden is only about 13% of the value of its Bitcoin portfolio, and its available liquidity is sufficient to cover interest payments and dividends for more than 17 months. This is a powerful signal for the market: major players are not just holding the asset but actively increasing their positions using debt financing.
Strategy's purchases in 2026 also offset sales by public miners, who reallocated capital to AI infrastructure and data centers. Additional market support could come from changes in US regulation: the advancement of the GENIUS Act on stablecoins, the launch of perpetual cryptocurrency futures through Kalshi and Coinbase, and the growth of the RWA market to $52 billion.
Historical Signal: Over 50% of Supply at a Loss
Analysts at K33 presented a similar conclusion based on another metric. Currently, more than half of Bitcoin's supply is at a loss — the indicator has risen from ~30% to over 50% in a month. Historically, such values were observed only in the late stages of bear phases and usually preceded the formation of a bottom within a few weeks. In the 2018 and 2022 cycles, the low was reached 23 and 13 days after the signal appeared, and in 2017, 31 days later.
Additional confirmation comes from Bitcoin returning to the 200-week moving average — a level that accompanied all previous market bottoms. At the same time, the RSI has dropped to its lowest since November 2018, and the fear and greed index has reached 8 ("extreme fear").
Despite the massive capital outflow from exchange-traded crypto products (about 85,600 BTC over four weeks), long-term holders continue to accumulate coins and now control about 79% of the circulating supply — a record share. K33 believes that the $60,000 area could already serve as a reference point for long-term accumulation and may claim to be the bottom of the current cycle.
My comment: The current correction, though painful for short-term speculators, looks like a consolidation phase before a new rally. Institutional flows, especially through Strategy, create a strong foundation. If regulatory clarity in the US materializes in the second half of the year, the $150,000 target will become not just ambitious but quite realistic. However, the key risk remains the macroeconomic backdrop — any tightening of Fed policy could delay the recovery by several months.