The ruble under pressure: analysts forecast a new weakening by the end of summer
After a brief technical correction in July, the Russian ruble is once again in the danger zone. Based on my analysis of current market indicators, we can expect another wave of weakening of the national currency by the end of summer.
The summer season is proving challenging for the ruble. At the start of the season, we saw a 10% decline, and the July correction of 3-5% only slightly offset the losses. I view this as a temporary respite before a new round of strengthening of the dollar, euro, and yuan. My targets for the end of summer are as follows: the dollar could return to June highs and even exceed the 80 ruble mark; the euro — around 90; the yuan — approaching 12 rubles.
Fundamental Pressure Factors
The key driver of the ruble's weakening is the imbalance between currency inflows and outflows. Demand from importers is steadily growing, while supply from exporters is shrinking. The situation is exacerbated by a seasonal factor: August is historically the weakest month for the ruble. Imports traditionally increase during this period, boosting demand for currency, while export revenues stagnate, reducing supply.
What Investors Should Do
In anticipation of further ruble weakening, I recommend considering several strategies. First, direct purchase of currency or futures on it. Second, currency bonds: as exchange rates rise, they not only appreciate but also generate coupon income.
Regarding the introduction of the digital ruble, scheduled for September 1, in my assessment, this event will have no impact on the national currency's exchange rate. The digital ruble is merely a new form of circulation, not a monetary policy tool.
My professional opinion: The current situation in the foreign exchange market sends a clear signal to diversify in favor of foreign currencies. Ignoring seasonal patterns and the fundamental imbalance could lead to significant losses in the purchasing power of ruble savings by the end of summer.