The ruble under pressure: a new wave of weakening expected by the end of summer
After a brief technical correction in July, the Russian ruble is once again facing the threat of significant weakening. My analysis of the current market conditions and macroeconomic factors indicates that by the end of summer, we can expect another wave of pressure on the national currency.
At the beginning of summer, the ruble lost about 10% of its value, and the July correction of 3-5% was purely technical in nature. This was merely a temporary pullback before a new round of strengthening of the dollar, euro, and yuan. According to my estimates, by the end of summer, we should expect a return to June highs for the major currency pairs: the dollar could reach 80 rubles, the euro around 90, and the yuan approach 12 rubles.
Fundamental Pressure Factors
The ruble exchange rate is determined by the balance of supply and demand for currency from exporters and importers, as well as budget flows. Currently, there is a persistent excess of demand over supply. This imbalance is particularly pronounced in August—historically the weakest month for the ruble.
The seasonal factor plays a key role: imports traditionally rise in the summer, increasing demand for currency, while exports stagnate, reducing supply. This is a classic pattern that repeats year after year, and this August will be no exception.
It is worth noting separately that the launch of the digital ruble, scheduled for September 1, will have no impact on the national currency's exchange rate. This is merely a new form of circulation, not an independent economic factor.
Recommendations for Investors
In anticipation of the ruble's weakening, I recommend considering the following strategies: purchasing currency or futures on it, as well as acquiring currency bonds. The latter will not only yield coupon income but also increase in value as the exchange rate strengthens.
My professional conclusion: The current situation resembles the classic scenario of summer ruble weakening, amplified by the structural imbalance in foreign trade. Investors should hedge currency risks in advance, as the fundamental prerequisites for further weakening remain strong, and the technical correction has merely delayed the inevitable.