The ruble under pressure: analysts predict a new wave of weakening by the end of summer
After a brief technical correction in July, the Russian ruble is once again under threat of significant weakening. My analysis of market data and fundamental factors indicates that by the end of summer, we can expect another wave of decline in the national currency's exchange rate.
At the beginning of summer, the ruble lost about 10% of its value. The July correction of 3-5% was only a temporary respite—a classic technical pullback before the continuation of the downtrend. The current dynamics of currency pairs are forming a clear pattern, signaling an upcoming strengthening of the dollar, euro, and yuan.
Key target levels for the end of summer
According to my calculations, based on an analysis of supply and demand balance, by the end of summer we may see the following values:
- US Dollar — a return to June highs and above, up to the 80 ruble mark;
- Euro — stabilization around 90 rubles;
- Chinese Yuan — approaching the 12 ruble level.
The fundamental picture is not in favor of the ruble. The ratio of currency inflows and outflows from exporters and importers is shifting, and the factor of budget currency purchases under the fiscal rule only adds to the pressure. The combination of these factors creates a sustained excess of demand over supply in the currency market.
Seasonal factor works against the ruble
Seasonality deserves special attention. August is historically the weakest month for the Russian currency. Trade balance statistics show a consistent pattern: imports rise during this period, increasing demand for foreign currency, while exports stagnate, reducing its supply. This is a classic recipe for weakening the national currency.
Strategy for investors
Against the backdrop of the expected ruble weakening, I recommend investors consider the following options for protecting savings:
- Purchasing foreign currency or futures on it;
- Investing in currency bonds—they will not only yield coupon income but also increase in value as the currency strengthens.
As for the introduction of the digital ruble, scheduled for September 1, in my assessment, this factor will have no impact on the national currency's exchange rate. The digital ruble is merely a new form of circulation, not an independent economic tool capable of changing the balance in the currency market.
Expert opinion: The market is already pricing in the August weakening into current quotes. Investors focused on capital preservation should hedge ruble risks now, without waiting for the decline to accelerate. The technical picture and fundamental data unequivocally point to a continuation of the ruble weakening trend in the short term.