The Russian stock market is in its 17th week of decline: analysts debate the bottom and growth factors
The Russian stock market is experiencing a prolonged correction that has lasted for 17 consecutive weeks. During this period, the Moscow Exchange index has corrected by nearly 25%, and according to several experts, it is still premature to talk about an imminent bottom. The current situation cannot be called stagnation—it is a full-fledged bearish trend, where declines occur even in the absence of obvious negative news. The main problem is the lack of buyers: investors are in no hurry to enter stocks, waiting for clearer signals.
Key Drivers for the Second Half of 2026
The key factor shaping market sentiment remains the Central Bank's monetary policy. A reduction in the key rate in the second half of the year is certainly expected, but its magnitude will likely not have a super-positive effect. Dividend payments may temporarily slow the decline, but they will not act as a catalyst for a reversal: after dividends are credited, selective purchases are possible, but their volume is insufficient to change the trend.
New IPOs deserve special attention. Experience from recent years shows that virtually no offering has generated income for investors, and most stocks trade below their issue price. High uncertainty around the rate reduces the number of companies willing to go public. Those that do take this step often do so not for growth, but as a "lifeline"—to patch up financial holes. I would recommend avoiding such assets.
Tokenization and Strategies for Investors
As for the tokenization of real assets—this is a global trend, but in Russia, there is no active movement toward tokenizing foreign stocks. There are already enough instruments for investing in foreign securities: from direct purchases through a number of brokers to depositary receipts on the SPB Exchange, CFDs from licensed forex companies, and futures on the Moscow Exchange. Qualified investors can buy real securities, while others can use derivative instruments.
For a retail investor with a 2-3 year horizon, the optimal strategy now is conservative. The portfolio's foundation should consist of bonds (primarily OFZs with short and medium maturities), while stocks should only be a small portion, accumulated carefully and regularly. I consider gold to be an absolutely non-investment asset. Cash is acceptable as a waiting position, placed in deposits or REPO transactions.
As for cryptocurrencies—over a 10-year horizon, this is an extremely toxic asset. The development of AI and the construction of the largest data centers in the US make crypto wallets vulnerable. Until a mechanism linking the asset to a person emerges, the essence of crypto as a decentralized tool will be lost.
My conclusion: the market is in a phase of a prolonged bearish trend, and trying to catch the bottom is a thankless task. The best strategy now is diversification into defensive instruments and patience. A reversal is possible only with a rate cut and an improvement in the geopolitical backdrop, but when that will happen—no one knows.