Analysts predict a new weakening of the ruble by the end of summer: the dollar could return to 80
After a brief technical correction in July, which allowed the ruble to partially recover its June losses, the market is again preparing for pressure on the national currency. My analysis of current dynamics and macroeconomic factors indicates that by the end of summer we will see a new wave of ruble weakening, and the dollar could retest the 80 ruble mark.
At the beginning of summer, the ruble lost about 10% of its value. In July, there was a slight pullback—a strengthening of 3-5%—but in my assessment, this was only a short-term correction before the resumption of the downtrend. The key target levels for late August to early September look like this: the dollar—a return to June highs and above, up to 80 rubles; the euro—around 90 rubles; the yuan—closer to 12 rubles.
Fundamental reasons for pressure on the ruble
The main driving force of the exchange rate remains the balance between the inflow of currency from exporters and demand from importers. We are currently seeing a sustained excess of demand over supply. A key factor amplifying this movement is seasonality. August is historically the weakest month for the ruble. Imports traditionally rise during this period, increasing demand for currency, while exports stagnate, reducing supply. This is a classic imbalance that puts pressure on the exchange rate.
It is also worth noting that currency purchases under the budget rule add additional pressure to the market. The combination of all these factors creates a sustained trend of ruble weakening in the coming weeks.
What investors should do and the impact of the digital ruble
In the current conditions, I recommend that investors consider several strategies to protect their savings. The most obvious option is the direct purchase of currency (dollar, euro, yuan) or futures on it. An alternative could be currency bonds: as the exchange rate rises, they not only appreciate but also generate coupon income.
As for the launch of the digital ruble, scheduled for September 1, I share the view that this event will not affect the exchange rate of the national currency in any way. The digital ruble is merely a new form of circulation, not a new monetary instrument. It does not change the fundamental factors of supply and demand in the currency market.
Expert opinion from Cryptalist: The market is clearly signaling a resumption of pressure on the ruble. The current correction was short-term and did not change the overall trend. Investors should be prepared for August to be a difficult month for the Russian currency and diversify their portfolios in advance.