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After a brief technical correction in July, the Russian ruble will come under pressure again. My analysis of the current market conditions indicates that by the end of summer, we will face another wave of weakening of the national currency. The June crash of 10% was only partially recovered in July, when the exchange rate corrected by 3-5%. However, this was merely a temporary respite, not a trend reversal.

Fundamental factors are working against the ruble

The key driver of the weakening is the imbalance between supply and demand for currency in the market. On one hand, we are seeing a seasonal increase in imports in August, which traditionally boosts demand for dollars, euros, and yuan. On the other hand, export revenues are stagnating, reducing the supply of currency. The fiscal rule is also exerting pressure, intensifying currency purchases. The combination of these factors creates a sustained excess of demand over supply.

Target levels for the end of summer

Based on the current dynamics, my forecasts are as follows: the dollar will return to its June highs and likely surpass them, reaching the level of 80 rubles. The euro, accordingly, will head toward 90 rubles, and the yuan toward 12 rubles. August is historically one of the weakest months for the ruble, and this year will be no exception.

What should investors do?

In anticipation of the ruble's weakening, I recommend considering several strategies. First, direct purchase of currency or futures on it. Second, currency bonds—as the exchange rate rises, they not only appreciate but also yield coupon income. As for the launch of the digital ruble, scheduled for September 1, this event will have no impact on the national currency's exchange rate. The digital ruble is merely a new form of circulation, not a new asset.

My verdict: The market is entering a phase of structural weakening of the ruble, and August seasonality will only amplify this trend. Investors should hedge currency risks in advance.