The ruble is preparing for a new collapse: an expert has named the timing and targets of the fall
After a brief respite in July, the Russian currency will once again come under strong pressure. An analysis of fundamental factors and seasonal patterns indicates that by the end of summer, the ruble faces a new wave of weakening, which could negate all the gains of the current correction.
June was a real test for the ruble—the exchange rate lost about 10% against major currencies. In July, a technical correction emerged, during which the ruble recovered 3–5% of its decline. However, as my calculations show, this is only a temporary pause before a more significant downward move.
The key target levels for the end of summer are as follows:
- US Dollar—a return to June highs and above, up to the 80 ruble mark;
- Euro—consolidation around 90 rubles;
- Chinese Yuan—approaching the 12 ruble level.
Fundamental Reasons for Weakening
The ruble's dynamics are traditionally determined by the balance between currency inflows from exporters and demand from importers. Currently, we are observing a sustained excess of demand over supply. Added to this is the fiscal rule, which amplifies currency purchases on the market, creating additional pressure on the ruble.
The seasonal factor deserves special attention. Statistics from recent years are relentless: August is historically the weakest month for the Russian currency. During this period, imports traditionally rise, increasing demand for currency, while export revenues stagnate. The supply of currency on the market decreases, which automatically pushes exchange rates up.
What Investors Should Do
In anticipation of the expected ruble weakening, I recommend considering several capital protection strategies. First, direct purchase of currency or futures on it. Second, currency bonds—when exchange rates rise, they not only appreciate but also generate coupon income.
As for the launch of the digital ruble, scheduled for September 1, this event will have no impact on the national currency's exchange rate. The digital ruble is merely a new form of circulation, not an independent financial instrument. The market understands this perfectly.
My conclusion: the current ruble correction is an ideal window for diversifying savings into foreign currency. Ignoring seasonal patterns and fundamental imbalances could cost investors a significant portion of the purchasing power of their ruble savings by September.