Analysts predict a new weakening of the ruble by the end of summer: the dollar could return to 80.
After a brief technical correction in July, which allowed the ruble to partially recover its June losses, the Russian currency will come under pressure again. My analysis of market dynamics and fundamental factors indicates that we can expect another wave of ruble weakening by the end of summer.
At the beginning of summer, the ruble lost about 10% of its value. The July correction of 3–5% was only a temporary respite. Now, it appears that the trend of strengthening for the dollar, euro, and yuan will resume, leading to a new round of ruble depreciation.
Key Target Levels for the End of Summer
Based on the current market conditions, I expect the following targets for the major currency pairs:
- US Dollar (USD/RUB): a return to June highs and above, up to the 80 ruble mark;
- Euro (EUR/RUB): stabilization around 90 rubles;
- Chinese Yuan (CNY/RUB): approaching the 12 ruble level.
The fundamental picture is clear: the ruble exchange rate is determined by the balance of supply and demand from exporters and importers. The key catalyst for movement is the factor of currency purchases under the budget rule. The combination of these factors creates a sustained excess of demand over supply in the foreign exchange market.
Seasonal Factor Works Against the Ruble
Seasonality deserves special attention. The statistics are relentless: August is historically the weakest month for the ruble. This is due to the structure of the trade balance:
- Imports are rising — companies are actively purchasing goods ahead of the autumn season, increasing demand for foreign currency;
- Exports are stagnating — the supply of currency from exporters is decreasing as sales volumes and revenue inflows decline.
As a result, traditionally in August we see an increase in foreign currency exchange rates.
Strategy for Investors
In anticipation of the expected ruble weakening, I recommend considering the following options for protecting savings:
- Direct purchase of currency (dollar, euro, yuan) or futures contracts on it;
- Currency bonds — as the exchange rate rises, they not only appreciate but also generate coupon income.
Regarding the launch of the digital ruble, scheduled for September 1, this factor, in my assessment, will have no impact on the national currency's exchange rate. The digital ruble is merely a new form of money circulation, not an independent instrument of the foreign exchange market.
My expert conclusion: The market is laying the foundation for a new weakening of the ruble. August seasonality and the structural imbalance of currency supply and demand are powerful drivers that will highly likely push the dollar to the 80 ruble mark. Investors should prepare for this wave in advance.