Conditions for Bitcoin's return to $66,000 this week: market analysis
This week, the market found itself at a crossroads: geopolitical tensions around the Strait of Hormuz are fueling demand for safe-haven assets, but the key driver for Bitcoin's movement will not be escalation, but macroeconomic data. The focus is on the June Consumer Price Index (CPI) in the US, which will show how much rising energy prices can alter the trajectory of the Federal Reserve's policy.
Geopolitics pushes oil and safe-haven assets higher
Markets have already reacted to news of a potential blockade of the Strait of Hormuz: WTI oil rose more than 4%, reaching $74.40 per barrel, while Brent is trading around $79. The US Dollar Index (DXY) strengthened to 101.2, and the yield on 10-year Treasury bonds holds at 4.50%. Gold, in turn, remains near $4,070 per ounce, indicating sustained demand for safe-haven assets despite high US bond yields.
Bitcoin shows resilience, holding above $63,000. The nearest resistance zone is in the range of $64,700–64,900. A confident break above this level could open the path to $66,000. However, if support is lost, market attention will shift to the $61,300 mark. Ethereum also maintains positions around $1,777.
CPI data will determine the reaction of risk assets
Markets are currently influenced by two competing factors. The first is the rise in the geopolitical risk premium, which supports oil prices, defense sector stocks, and traditional safe-haven assets. The second is the release of June inflation data in the US, which should show whether high energy prices are beginning to change expectations regarding the Fed's future policy.
If inflation comes in higher than forecasts, it could lead to a further rise in Treasury bond yields and increase pressure on risk assets, including cryptocurrencies. Conversely, weaker CPI data will reinforce the view that the rise in oil prices is primarily a supply shock, meaning investor appetite for risk in the stock and cryptocurrency markets could persist.
An additional supporting factor remains institutional investments. Spot cryptocurrency ETFs in the US recorded net capital inflows of over $100 million on July 10, indicating sustained interest from large investors even amid heightened tensions.
My analysis: Given the current macroeconomic picture, a return of Bitcoin to $66,000 is possible only under conditions of moderate inflation and sustained institutional capital inflows. However, any tightening of the Fed's rhetoric could quickly nullify this scenario.