The market on the verge of change: Analysis of the current liquidity replenishment situation
Over the past 24 hours, we have observed a significant inflow of capital into cryptocurrency exchanges. Deposit volumes have increased by 18%, amounting to approximately $1.2 billion equivalent. This is the highest figure in the last three weeks.
Key coins are showing mixed dynamics. Bitcoin, despite the overall inflow, is down 2.3%, trading near the $63,400 mark. Ethereum, on the other hand, is holding its ground, gaining 0.8% to $3,120. Altcoins from the top 50 have lost an average of 1.5% over the day.
Analyzing the structure of deposits, three main clusters can be identified: large institutional transfers (amounts from 500 BTC), medium-sized transactions from mining pools, and retail deposits. The first category accounts for 62% of the total volume, indicating activity from institutional players, possibly preparing for a redistribution of positions.
Technical Analysis of the Situation
The CVD (Cumulative Volume Delta) indicator shows a negative value at -$340 million, indicating a predominance of sellers at current levels. However, deposit volumes create a significant liquidity buffer that could soften the correction.
The support level of $62,800 remains critical. A breakdown with volume confirmation would open the path to $60,500. If it holds, a rebound to $65,200 is likely, followed by a test of $66,800.
The MVRV Z-Score metric is in the neutral zone (1.8), indicating neither overheating nor undervaluation of the market. This is a classic consolidation scenario before a significant move.
My professional opinion: The market is in an accumulation phase. Deposits, especially institutional ones, often precede major movements. However, the current price weakness amid capital inflow is a classic sign of manipulation, where large players accumulate positions by driving the price down. I expect a reversal within 48-72 hours, provided selling volumes do not exceed $1.5 billion.