Brent oil surged 11%: geopolitical storm in the Strait of Hormuz drives prices up
On Monday, the black gold market experienced its most powerful surge in volatility since the escalation of the US-Iran conflict began in late February. The price of benchmark Brent crude oil (UKOIL) jumped nearly 11%, reaching $83.31 per barrel, following a confident rebound from the support zone of $71–$73.
Strait of Hormuz in the Crosshairs: Trump's Plan as a Growth Catalyst
The main driver of the rally is the escalating situation in the Persian Gulf region. US military forces have launched hundreds of strikes against Iranian targets, stating their intention to take direct control of the Strait of Hormuz. In peacetime, about a fifth of the world's oil trade passes through this strategic corridor. In response, Tehran has activated missile systems and drones, and has again declared the strait closed to vessels deviating from permitted routes.
Shipping data has already recorded a traffic collapse: over 12 hours on Sunday, only nine vessels managed to transit the strait, compared to an average daily number of crossings approaching 130 before the start of hostilities. Stock markets reacted divergently: Japan's Nikkei 225 lost nearly 2%, while South Korean stocks continued to fall amid a decline in chipmakers. Oil contracts, on the other hand, received a powerful boost from the reassessment of geopolitical risks.
Technical Analysis: RSI Breaks Resistance After Three Failed Attempts
On the daily Brent chart, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has consolidated above the neutral level of 50, reaching the 55 mark. This breakout is particularly significant because sellers had previously halted the indicator's rise three times — in May at levels 64 and 58, and in June at 46. At the end of June, the RSI dropped to 27, entering near-oversold territory, which created the conditions for a reversal. Now, after overcoming the downward trend line, the initiative has shifted to buyers.
Brent Forecast: Key Level $90–$92
From February to May, Brent moved within a large symmetrical triangle with a peak at $118 and a base at $91. At the end of May, the price broke down from the pattern and tested the support zone of $71–$73 by early July. Buyers held this level, forming a base over two weeks, and Monday's session allowed the price to rise above $83.
The next significant resistance lies in the $90–$92 area. This zone previously acted as support for the triangle and will now become a key test for the current recovery. If sellers become active here again, the bearish scenario will be confirmed, and the price could return to $71–$73. However, a daily close above $92 would invalidate the downside breakout and restore the bullish sentiment from the start of the year.
Expert Opinion: The geopolitical premium in oil prices is likely to persist as long as Iran maintains tensions in the Strait of Hormuz. The $90–$92 range will be decisive for the medium-term trend: either we will see a reversal and consolidation, or another lower high that will cement a bear market. For now, the momentum is with the bulls, but fundamental risks remain extremely high.