Brent crude surged 11% amid escalation in the Strait of Hormuz: Trump's plan reshapes the market
On Monday, the black gold market experienced a powerful price shock. Brent crude oil (UKOIL) made a sharp leap, rising by almost 11% and reaching the $83.31 per barrel mark. This surge was the most significant since the escalation of the US-Iranian confrontation at the end of February, and it completely rewrote short-term technical scenarios.
Geopolitical Factor: Control of the Strait
The reason for such rapid growth is by no means market speculation, but rather concrete military actions. The US command launched massive strikes on Iranian targets, declaring its intention to take direct control of the Strait of Hormuz. About a fifth of all global oil trade passes through this narrow corridor. In response, Tehran deployed missiles and drones, again declaring the strait closed to vessels deviating from permitted routes.
Shipping data already records a collapse: in the 12 hours of Sunday, only nine tankers managed to cross the strait, whereas before the start of hostilities, the daily average was close to 130. The logistical paralysis instantly revalued the risks in the price.
Technical Analysis: RSI Breakout and Growth Targets
From a technical standpoint, the signals also confirm a trend change. The daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) for Brent broke through the descending resistance line, which had halted growth three times — in May at levels 64 and 58, and in June at the 46 mark. The indicator has now settled above the neutral zone of 50, indicating a shift in initiative to buyers. If the RSI holds above this level, the path for further growth is open.
Brent Forecast: Key Range $90–$92
The price bounced off the strong support zone of $71–$73, where a base had been forming for two weeks. Traders' eyes are now fixed on the resistance in the $90–$92 range. In the spring, this level acted as support for a symmetrical triangle, and now overcoming it will be a decisive test. If sellers become active again at this mark, the bearish scenario will be confirmed, and Brent could return to $71–$73. However, a daily close above $92 would cancel the downward breakout and restore the bullish sentiment that dominated early in the year.
My expert assessment: The geopolitical premium in oil prices will persist until tensions in the Strait of Hormuz subside. The market clearly underestimated the risk of a complete blockade, and the current rebound is just the beginning of a revaluation. The $90–$92 range will become not just resistance, but a litmus test: if it is broken, Brent could head towards triple-digit values.