Brent crude oil surged 11%: Trump's plan to control the Strait of Hormuz reshapes the market
On Monday, the oil market experienced a massive shock. Brent (UKOIL) quotes surged nearly 11%, reaching $83.31. This jump was the most significant since the escalation of the US-Iranian confrontation in late February. The price bounced off the support zone of $71–$73, where buyers held the line for two weeks.
The reason is a sharp escalation in the Strait of Hormuz. The US administration, as part of a new strategy, launched massive strikes on Iranian targets. The goal is to deprive Tehran of the ability to attack merchant ships. The response was swift: Iranian missiles and drones were fired toward American targets, and the strait itself was again declared closed for free passage.
The consequences were immediate. Shipping data recorded a traffic collapse: over 12 hours on Sunday, only nine vessels managed to cross the strait. For comparison, in peacetime, the average daily number of transits approached 130. About a fifth of global oil trade passes through this corridor, and every hour of downtime hits global supplies.
Technical Signal: RSI Breaks Resistance
The daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) for Brent surpassed the 55 mark, settling above the neutral level of 50. This is not just a technical nuance—it is a shift in the balance of power. The initiative has passed to buyers. Previously, since March, the descending RSI resistance line had repelled quotes three times: in May at levels 64 and 58, and in June at 46. At the end of June, the indicator fell to 27, nearly entering oversold territory. Now, the breakout of this line has opened the door for further growth.
Brent Forecast: Key Test at $90–$92
From February to May, Brent moved within a symmetrical triangle with a peak at $118 and a base at $91. At the end of May, the price broke this pattern downward, reaching support at $71–$73 by early July. However, buyers held this level, and Monday's surge brought Brent to the $83.54 zone—a 10.76% increase in a single session.
Now, market attention is focused on the $90–$92 range. Previously, this area acted as triangle support, but it has now turned into a key resistance level. If sellers become active here, the bearish scenario will be confirmed, and the price could return to $71–$73. However, a daily close above $92 would invalidate the downward breakout and restore the bullish trend from the start of the year.
The geopolitical premium in the price is likely to persist until tensions in the Strait of Hormuz subside. In my analysis, the $90–$92 range will be decisive for the current recovery: either we will see a reversal or another lower high.