Bitcoin has stabilized above $65,000 amid slowing inflation in the US: market analysis and capital inflows
The digital asset market received a strong boost after the release of fresh U.S. inflation data. Bitcoin not only surpassed the psychologically important level of $65,000 but also managed to hold these positions, demonstrating resilience to short-term fluctuations. At the time of writing this analysis, the first cryptocurrency is trading near the $65,340 mark, which is 2% higher than the previous day's figures.
Macroeconomic Background: Inflation Slows, but Risks Remain
Annual inflation in the U.S. in June fell from 4.2% to 3.5%, against a consensus forecast of 3.8%. The Core Consumer Price Index (Core CPI), which excludes volatile components like food and energy, also showed a slowdown — from 2.9% to 2.6%. On a monthly basis, consumer prices decreased by 0.4%, the largest drop since April 2020. The main driver of this process was the cheaper energy prices.
Bitcoin's reaction was immediate: within minutes of the data release, quotes surged from $62,000 to $64,900. Ethereum also responded with a rise of more than 4%, reaching the $1,933 mark. According to my data, within the first hour after the statistics were released, the volume of purchases on Binance amounted to $1.2 billion, while on OKX and Deribit it was $23.6 million and $15 million, respectively.
Derivatives Market: Speculative Surge or Start of a Trend?
The current price movement is predominantly speculative in nature. The rise was driven by an influx of buyers into the derivatives market, as confirmed by data from analyst Darkfost. However, it is too early to talk about the formation of a sustainable upward trend — traders continue to play on high volatility, reacting to every new macroeconomic signal.
New Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh, in his speech before the House Financial Services Committee, noted that artificial intelligence could act as a disinflationary factor for the economy. However, the regulator is not yet ready to declare victory over inflation and did not give clear signals about lowering the key interest rate. The probability of a rate hike at the July 28–29 meeting fell from 42% to 12.3%, which the market perceived positively.
Capital Inflow into ETFs: Trend Reversal After Outflow
On July 14, the net inflow into spot Bitcoin ETFs amounted to $181 million, with $139 million of that coming from BlackRock's IBIT fund. This followed an outflow of $425 million the day before, indicating high volatility in institutional investor sentiment. Ethereum funds attracted $58.34 million, fully backed by BlackRock's ETF, while other funds showed zero dynamics.
Since the beginning of July, periods of inflow and outflow into exchange-traded funds have been alternating every few days without a clear direction, pointing to uncertainty among major players.
My Expert Opinion
The slowdown in inflation is undoubtedly a positive signal for risky assets, including cryptocurrencies. However, I advise caution: the market remains tied to macroeconomic data and Fed rhetoric. Until the regulator begins actual monetary policy easing, any rally will be speculative in nature. The $65,000 level is an important psychological support, but a more sustainable fundamental catalyst will be needed to consolidate above $68,000.