SpaceX shares have plummeted by 40%: a bullish divergence and a "falling wedge" offer a chance for a rebound ahead of the Starship launch
SpaceX (SPCX) shares are experiencing a significant correction: since mid-June, the instrument has lost nearly 40% of its value, dropping from a high of $225.64 to current levels around $137. In pre-market trading, the shares are trading slightly above the offering price of $135, while yesterday's low was recorded at $135.52. However, despite such an aggressive decline, a bullish "falling wedge" pattern is forming on the hourly chart, which could trigger a bounce to $158.
Key support levels broken, but indicators are signaling
On the daily timeframe, we see three consecutive red candles. Yesterday, SPCX closed at $136.08, down 2.20%. Over the month, the decline amounted to $89.60, or 39.69%. Sellers consistently broke through the support zone of $168–171, and then the $149–153 level, which did not hold on July 8. A retest of this range ended in failure, indicating its transformation into strong resistance.
Fundamental pressure is intensifying: at the end of July, simultaneously with the second-quarter report, the first tranche of 20% of shares will be unlocked. Another 10% can only be obtained if the price closes above $175.50, which is practically unattainable given the current dynamics. Additionally, in June, SpaceX issued its first bond offering of $25 billion with a yield of 5.35–6.65%, which only added pressure on quotes and led to a reduction in Elon Musk's fortune by more than $500 billion.
Bullish pattern and RSI divergence
On the hourly chart, the situation looks less bearish. After a bounce from $176 on July 1, the shares are compressing inside a "falling wedge" — a pattern that often resolves with an upward move. The technical target for this pattern is $157.89, which is nearly 15% above the current price. However, the scenario will only work if the price returns above the $149–153 zone, which now acts as resistance.
On the bulls' side, a bullish divergence on the RSI 14 indicator also plays a role: on July 14, a higher low was formed, while the price updated a local low. This is the first divergence since the start of the correction, which is a strong signal for a reversal.
Analysts at Evercore ISI last week initiated coverage of SpaceX shares with an "outperform" rating and a target price of $230, close to the average market forecast of $236. As experts noted: "There is no arguing that this is an exceptional company that is truly changing the future of humanity."
Forecast: Starship's success will decide everything
On Thursday, July 16, the 13th launch of Starship will take place. For the first time, the rocket will put 20 operational Starlink V3 satellites into orbit. This payload will add 60 terabits per second of capacity — more than 20 times that of a single Falcon 9 flight. A successful flight will allow SPCX to break out of its current range and confirm Musk's bold estimates. A failure, however, will drop the price below $135 — the IPO level — and then the bulls will have no support left.
Retail investors are also showing interest in the shares. Tokenized SpaceX products on Solana (SOL) captured a large share of the quarterly turnover of tokenized stocks — $5.77 billion. The Backpack token alone has over 10,000 holders. Currently, the SPCX price is squeezed between a bullish pattern with a target of $158 and the offering level, below which it cannot fall.
My expert opinion: A 40% correction is a harsh but not fatal price for overheating. The "falling wedge" and RSI divergence offer hope for a bounce, but only a successful Starship launch can reverse the downtrend. If the mission fails, we could see a drop below $135 — and then there will be no support until $100. The market is waiting not just for a test, but for a triumph.