SpaceX on the brink: stock collapse of 40% and decisive Starship launch
SpaceX (SPCX) shares are experiencing a dramatic decline. Since mid-June, the company's market capitalization has shrunk by nearly 40% from its all-time high of $225.64. In pre-market trading, the shares are trading near the $137 mark, only slightly above the offering price of $135 and yesterday's low of $135.52. However, a "falling wedge" pattern is forming on the hourly chart, which could signal an imminent bounce to the $158 level.
Technical Picture: Loss of Key Levels
On the daily chart, we see three consecutive red candles. Yesterday's close at $136.08, with a decline of 2.20%, solidified the negative trend. Sellers have successively breached two important support ranges: $168–171 (mid-June) and $149–153 (July 8). Each of these levels, after being broken, has turned into resistance, confirming the strength of bearish pressure.
Fundamental risks are compounded by an upcoming event: at the end of July, simultaneously with the second-quarter report, the first tranche of shares—20% of the total volume—will be unlocked. Another 10% will only be accessible if the closing price exceeds $175.50, which, given the current decline, seems nearly unattainable. Additionally, in June, SpaceX entered the bond market with a $25 billion issuance yielding 5.35–6.65%, which only intensified the correction and reduced Elon Musk's fortune by more than $500 billion.
Bullish Chance: RSI Divergence and "Falling Wedge"
Despite the grim picture on the daily chart, the hourly timeframe offers some hope for bulls. After the bounce on July 1 around $176, SPCX has been contracting within a "falling wedge" pattern, which often resolves with an upward move. The technical target for this pattern is $157.89, nearly 15% above the current price. However, this scenario will only play out if the price returns above the $149–153 zone, which now acts as resistance.
A key signal for bulls is the formation of a bullish divergence on the RSI indicator on July 14. The indicator formed a higher low, while the price updated a local low. This is the first bullish divergence since the start of the correction and could act as a catalyst for a reversal.
Forecast: Everything Hinges on the 13th Starship Launch
On Thursday, SpaceX faces its main test—the 13th Starship launch. For the first time, the rocket will deploy 20 operational Starlink V3 satellites into orbit. This payload will add 60 terabits per second of bandwidth—more than 20 times that of a single Falcon 9 flight.
A successful flight will allow SPCX to break out of its current range and confirm Elon Musk's bold valuations. A failure, however, will push the price below the IPO level of $135, leaving the shares with no support from below.
My opinion: SpaceX is at a bifurcation point. The technical picture offers a chance for a bounce, but fundamental risks—share unlocking and debt burden—weigh on the quotes. The success of Starship could be the catalyst that reverses the trend. Otherwise, we will see a test of levels that many considered untouchable.