Bitcoin has stabilized above $65,000 amid slowing U.S. inflation: ETF inflows have resumed
The digital asset market received a strong boost following the release of June inflation data in the United States. Bitcoin not only surpassed the $65,000 mark but also managed to hold its gains, triggering a renewed inflow of capital into institutional crypto funds. At the time of writing, the leading cryptocurrency is trading near $65,340, showing a daily increase of 2%.
Macroeconomic Catalyst: Inflation Slows Down
Annual inflation in the US fell from 4.2% to 3.5% in June, significantly beating the consensus forecast of analysts who expected 3.8%. The Core Consumer Price Index (Core CPI), which excludes volatile food and energy categories, also slowed from 2.9% to 2.6%. On a monthly basis, consumer prices dropped by 0.4%, the largest decline since April 2020. Cheaper energy prices played a key role in this.
Bitcoin's reaction was immediate: within minutes, prices surged from $62,000 to $64,900. Ethereum also responded with a gain of over 4%, reaching $1,933. According to my data, in the first hour after the statistics were released, the volume of purchases on Binance exceeded $1.2 billion, with activity spikes recorded on OKX ($23.6 million) and Deribit ($15 million).
Derivatives Market and the Fed's Stance
The current rally is largely speculative in nature, driven by an influx of buyers into the derivatives market. It is too early to talk about the formation of a sustained upward trend — traders are actively using high volatility for short-term profits.
The speech by new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh before the House committee added intrigue. He noted that the development of artificial intelligence acts as a disinflationary factor for the economy but made it clear that the regulator is not ready to declare victory over inflation. Warsh gave no clear signals about cutting the key interest rate, stating: "Some may look at today's data and say, 'Mission accomplished.' I don't think so." Nevertheless, markets reacted positively: the probability of a rate hike at the July 28–29 meeting sharply dropped from ~42% to 12.3%.
Institutional Inflow: A Trend Shift
On July 14, net inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs amounted to $181 million, a stark contrast to the $425 million outflow the previous day. The lion's share of funds ($139 million) went to BlackRock's IBIT fund. Ethereum funds also attracted $58.34 million, with the entire volume coming exclusively from BlackRock's ETF — other issuers showed zero activity.
It is worth noting that since the beginning of July, periods of inflows and outflows in exchange-traded funds have alternated every few days, indicating a lack of clear directional movement from institutional investors. However, the reaction to macroeconomic data demonstrates the market's continued sensitivity to the Fed's monetary policy.
My comment: Slowing inflation is certainly a positive signal, but relying solely on it as a driver for long-term growth would be imprudent. The market remains caught between geopolitical risks and uncertainty about the Fed's actions. The current rebound is more of a temporary respite than the start of a new bull rally. For a sustained move above $70,000, a more concrete signal from the regulator about policy easing will be needed.