Realized losses of bitcoin holders have started to decline — a signal of a trend reversal?
A key indicator of market pressure on Bitcoin is showing signs of easing. Realized losses, recorded by holders of coins purchased in 2024–2025, have begun to decline after reaching a local peak. In past market cycles, similar dynamics have repeatedly preceded the formation of a bottom and the start of an upward trend.
Psychology of Short-Term Holders
When Bitcoin's price gets stuck in a sideways trend or declines slightly, it is the group of investors who bought coins 12–24 months ago that begins to capitulate actively. They sell at a loss, increasing pressure on the market. However, once the flow of loss-making sales dries up, the market gets a breather. This is exactly what we are observing now: in early July, the 30-day sum of realized losses exceeded $75 million, after which the indicator steadily moved downward.
It is important to understand: this is a preliminary signal, not a guaranteed bottom. However, historically, a cooling of this indicator has often been one of the earliest signs that sell-offs are coming to an end.
Key Resistance Level: $69,000
Currently, market attention is focused on the $69,000 mark. This level is the intersection zone of the aggregate cost basis of short-term holders and previous all-time highs from the last bull cycle. The first test of this zone will likely trigger a strong reaction: this is where the largest number of sellers break even and will be inclined to lock in positions.
If Bitcoin manages to firmly establish itself above $69,000, it will open the door for further growth. Otherwise, the asset risks remaining in the current range, consolidating while waiting for a stronger catalyst.
At the time of writing this analysis, Bitcoin is trading around $64,200, down 0.7% over the past day. I recall that on July 14, following the release of US inflation data, the price briefly rose above $65,000, but the bulls currently lack the momentum to hold above that level.
My professional opinion: The decline in realized losses is a positive but insufficient signal for a full reversal. The market needs time to "burn off" the remaining weak holders and accumulate liquidity for a breakout above $69,000. Until we see sustained buying volume above this level, any rallies should be viewed as local bounces within a broader consolidation.