Bitcoin matures: on-chain signals indicate a phase of accumulation, not capitulation
The speculative fervor characteristic of the 2025 bull market has given way to structural consolidation. An analysis of on-chain data conducted by CryptoQuant experts indicates Bitcoin's transition into a phase of mature accumulation, rather than a panic sell-off.
A range of key metrics—from coin velocity to the behavior of long-term holders—paints a picture of a market increasingly less dependent on short-term speculation. This is not capitulation, but a deliberate redistribution of liquidity.
Velocity and Inflow of "Old" Coins: Holders Are Not Rushing to Sell
The first and perhaps most telling signal is the sharp decline in Bitcoin's velocity. Currently, this indicator hovers around 13.5, significantly lower than levels seen in 2021–2022. This directly suggests that coins are moving less frequently, and their owners prefer to hold assets rather than resell them.
Additional confirmation comes from the metric of "old" coin inflows to the Binance exchange (Exchange Inflow CDD). It has dropped to a level of 454.6—far below the peak values of past cycles. Sharp spikes in this indicator usually precede mass sell-offs by long-term investors. The current low level means such a threat is absent. However, it is important to monitor whether it holds at these values alongside the BTC price to confirm the trend's sustainability.
Derivatives Market Cools Down, While Institutions Accumulate
The broader picture, described by analyst TopNotchYJ, points to a deliberate redistribution of liquidity. The SOPR indicator fluctuates around 1.0, signaling a balance between profit-taking and protecting the purchase price. Exchange reserves continue to deplete—this is a key signal. Spot ETFs and institutional custodians are actively absorbing liquid supply, removing it from the market.
The derivatives market also sends clear signals. The estimated leverage ratio (ELR) and open interest have notably declined from cycle peaks. This significantly reduces the risk of cascading long position liquidations, which often lead to sharp crashes.
Analyst Conclusion: All Three Signals Converge at One Point
All three analysts agree on the main point: the market is transitioning from speculation to accumulation. Holder behavior, capital flows, and leverage levels all point in the same direction. The accumulation picture appears much more robust than the signal from any single indicator.
My professional opinion: The current configuration of on-chain data is one of the most bullish signals for the medium-term outlook. We are seeing not just "holding," but a structural removal of liquidity from the market. This creates a solid foundation for the next upward move, as soon as the macroeconomic situation provides a catalyst. The market is not just "cooling down"—it is preparing for a new surge.