Bitcoin's rise to $65,000 is a trap. My analysis of the situation and a realistic BTC forecast
The cryptocurrency market is once again on the verge of a major decision. After a local bounce and an attempt to hold above the psychological level of $65,000, I see increasing signs that this rally may be false. My analysis, based on a combination of macroeconomic and geopolitical factors, points to a high probability of a new pullback, followed by a full-fledged bull rally.
Geopolitical Background: Strait War and Shifting Priorities
The key driver of the current uncertainty is the escalation of the conflict around the Strait of Hormuz. The ceasefire regime between the US and Iran has effectively collapsed. On the night of July 14, Iran launched a fifth wave of strikes on bases in Bahrain, Kuwait, and Jordan, while the US retaliates by destroying air defense systems and missile positions. Traffic through the strait has dropped by 85% — from 40 ships per day to ten.
It's important to understand: the dispute is no longer about the nuclear program. Both sides claim control over the strait. Iran demands coordinated passage, while the Trump administration intends to take the route under its guardianship, imposing a 20% fee, which Secretary of State Marco Rubio has already called illegal. My base scenario is "wait and negotiate": a series of strikes will serve as the final argument before returning to the negotiating table, and a new deal is possible closer to mid-August, with a compromise on the Omani two-route scheme.
Until the end of July, oil will remain above $80: the supply deficit reaches 8 million barrels per day, a traffic jam of 2,000 ships has accumulated near the strait, which will take about two months to clear. I plan to trade oil on pullbacks in the $70–85 range.
Macroeconomics: Inflation Slows, But Too Early to Celebrate
Fresh US inflation data came in better than expected. In June, annual inflation slowed to 3.5% against a forecast of 3.8% and the previous 4.2%, while the monthly index fell by 0.4% — the first time since the start of the pandemic. The core PCE index showed zero monthly growth, dropping on an annual basis from 2.9% to 2.6%. The arguments for further rate hikes, which Fed representative Christopher Waller warned about, have essentially disappeared, and the market no longer expects tightening in July.
However, I caution against euphoria. Every $10 rise in oil adds about 0.3% to US inflation, US strategic reserves are near multi-year lows, and the massive spending by tech giants on AI and data centers is becoming a new pro-inflationary factor.
Bitcoin Technical Analysis: A Bull Trap
For Bitcoin, the key level is $65,000, which has acted as resistance for two weeks. A breakout above opens the path to $67,000–70,000, where I plan to partially take profits on longs accumulated from the local bottom. However, July, in my assessment, could be a month of false growth. A potential bull trap is already forming on the chart, and two previous similar scenarios ended in sharp sell-offs.
If the weekly candle closes below $65,000, I am ready to close longs early and look for short entry points, expecting a deeper pullback with a test of the full bottom closer to the end of the month. And only after that, in my conviction, will the true bull market begin.
My professional opinion: The market is currently in an accumulation phase ahead of a major move. Ignoring signals at $65,000 and chasing "quick" money could lead to serious losses. Patience and discipline are the investor's main allies in the coming weeks.