Bitcoin's rise to $65,000 is a classic bull trap: my BTC forecast
The current rise of bitcoin to the $65,000 mark is not the start of a parabolic rally, but rather appears to be a liquidity trap. After this surge, a new pullback should be expected, and only then can the market transition into a full-fledged bullish phase.
Analysis of the current macroeconomic and geopolitical landscape indicates that July could be a month of a "false breakout." The truce between Washington and Tehran has effectively collapsed: on the night of July 14, Iran launched a fifth wave of strikes on bases in Bahrain, Kuwait, and Jordan, and the US retaliated by taking out air defense systems, coastal radars, and missile positions. Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has dropped by approximately 85% — from over 40 vessels per day to about a dozen.
Shift in Conflict Objective: From Nuclear Program to Strait Control
The dispute is no longer about the nuclear program. Both sides claim control over the strait: Iran demands that passage be coordinated with Tehran, while Trump has stated his intention to place the route under US oversight and collect a 20% fee, although Secretary of State Marco Rubio called the charge for passage through an international waterway illegal.
The baseline scenario is "wait and negotiate": a series of strikes will serve as the final argument before returning to the negotiating table. A new deal is possible closer to mid-August, by the end of the 60-day memorandum window, with a compromise on the Omani two-route scheme.
Until the end of July, in my estimation, oil will remain above $80: the supply deficit reaches about 8 million barrels per day, with a backlog of approximately 2,000 vessels accumulated near the strait, which will take about two months to clear. I plan to trade oil on pullbacks in the $70–85 range.
Bitcoin Investors Shouldn't Celebrate Too Early
It's worth examining the latest statistics separately: US inflation in June slowed to 3.5% year-over-year against a forecast of 3.8% and the previous 4.2%, while the index fell by 0.4% month-over-month — the first time since the start of the pandemic. The core PCE index showed zero monthly growth, dropping year-over-year from 2.9% to 2.6%. Arguments for further rate hikes, which Fed representative Christopher Waller warned about the day before, have essentially disappeared, and the market no longer expects tightening in July.
At the same time, I caution against euphoria: every $10 increase in oil adds about 0.3% to US inflation, US strategic reserves are near multi-year lows, and the massive spending by tech giants on AI and data centers is becoming a new pro-inflationary factor.
For bitcoin, the key level is $65,000, which has acted as resistance for two weeks. A consolidation above opens the path to $67,000–70,000, where I plan to partially take profit on longs accumulated from the local bottom. However, July, in my opinion, could be a month of false growth: a potential bull trap is already forming on the chart, and two previous similar scenarios ended in sharp sell-offs. If the weekly candle closes below $65,000, I am ready to close longs early and look for short entry points, expecting a deeper pullback closer to the end of the month with a test of the full bottom — and only after that, I believe, will the true bull market begin.
My conclusion: The market is overheated by expectations of an imminent Fed easing, but the geopolitical factor and oil shock could quickly cool the enthusiasm. The current rise to $65,000 is not a breakout but a technical correction within a broader downtrend. Entering a long position now carries high risk; it is wiser to wait for a pullback to $55,000–57,000 to form a reliable entry point.