The flow of capital into U.S. Treasury bonds has reached $9.37 trillion: what this means for the crypto market
Global demand for U.S. government debt continues to break records. According to my data, in May 2025, the total volume of foreign investments in U.S. Treasuries increased by $18 billion, reaching $9.37 trillion. This is the second highest figure in history.
Over the past twelve months, the inflow of foreign capital into U.S. Treasury bonds amounted to an impressive $549 billion. This trend demonstrates that, despite all geopolitical risks and talk of de-dollarization, U.S. debt remains the primary safe-haven asset for global investors.
Japan reduces, UK and China increase
An analysis of the distribution of investments by country reveals an interesting picture. The largest holder, Japan, reduced its investments by $67 billion to $1.14 trillion, the lowest level since May 2024. This may be related to the need to support its own currency.
However, the outflow from Japan was more than compensated by other players. The UK increased its positions by $11 billion, reaching a record $949 billion. China, the third-largest holder, increased its investments by $8 billion to $659 billion, the highest since February.
Financial centers deserve special attention. The seven largest of them collectively added $33 billion, bringing their total investments to an all-time high of $3.24 trillion. This indicates that professional market participants still see Treasuries as a safe haven.
Indirect impact on Bitcoin
For us, as crypto market analysts, this dynamic has a dual significance. On one hand, sustained demand for U.S. government debt reduces incentives for capital to flow into risky assets, including Bitcoin. As long as investors are confident in the reliability of traditional safe-haven instruments, demand for digital assets as a "refuge" may remain subdued.
On the other hand, the growth in the issuance of U.S. debt is a long-term argument in favor of decentralized assets. An increase in government debt inevitably leads to the devaluation of fiat currencies, and it is against this backdrop that Bitcoin is increasingly seen as a hedging tool.
My assessment: As long as Treasury yields remain attractive and the dollar is stable, cryptocurrencies will face pressure from traditional markets. However, as soon as confidence in U.S. fiscal discipline begins to wane—and signs of this are already visible in the reduction of investments from Japan—we may see a new inflow of capital into BTC as an alternative to depreciating fiat assets.