Three on-chain signals hint at an XRP reversal after a 70% correction
After a deep drawdown in XRP, during which the asset lost about 70% of its value, the market is beginning to show signs of a potential reversal. On-chain data analysis has revealed three independent signals that have preceded powerful rallies in the past. However, as practice shows, history does not have to repeat itself verbatim.
The first signal is related to the structure of XRP flows on exchanges. A sharp imbalance towards the withdrawal of coins from trading platforms has been recorded. The share of withdrawal transactions on Binance reached 54.5% — the highest level since July 2024, exceeding the previous peak of 53.2% from June 20, 2025. At the same time, the share of deposits fell to 45.4%, and the spread between withdrawals and deposits widened to 9.1% compared to 6.5% in June. A similar picture is observed on all centralized exchanges, where the share of withdrawals amounted to 53.01%.
It is important to understand: this is not about volumes, but about the number of transactions. This indicates a change in the structure of trades, not guaranteed growth. Nevertheless, after a similar configuration on June 20, 2025, XRP rose from approximately $2.11 to $3.50 within a month — almost 66%.
The market is shedding leverage
The second signal is the clearing of the market from excessive leverage (deleveraging). The estimated leverage ratio (ELR) on Binance has dropped to 0.16, one of the lowest levels since November 2024. It is approaching the April 2026 low of 0.15.
A decline in ELR is a natural process during a correction. Some futures positions were liquidated, which mechanically pulled down open interest. Importantly, an excess of accumulated leverage makes the market more fragile. Its clearing, on the other hand, lays a healthier foundation for future movement. In 2024, when ELR approached 0.05 with the price around $0.40, this was followed by an XRP rally of more than 790%.
Whales lie low
The third signal is a sharp slowdown in the outflow of large XRP holders from Binance. Over 30 days, this indicator dropped to approximately 885.1 million coins — a low not seen in more than two months. This suggests that major players have adopted a wait-and-see stance, possibly anticipating new catalysts.
By itself, low whale outflow is not an unequivocally bullish or bearish signal. It merely reflects reduced activity among large accounts, which could ultimately affect overall market liquidity.
My expert assessment: The coincidence of three heterogeneous signals — a structural imbalance in withdrawals, market deleveraging, and whale inactivity — creates an intriguing picture. Historical precedents from June 2025 and 2024 confirm that such configurations have preceded powerful rallies. However, current market conditions are different: the macroeconomic backdrop, regulatory environment, and overall sentiment are distinct. Investors should view these signals as an additional argument for analysis, but not as a guarantee of a repeat scenario. The key factor will remain XRP's ability to hold above current levels and form a sustained upward trend.