Three on-chain signals hint at an XRP reversal after a 70% correction
After a deep correction in which the XRP price lost about 70% of its peak values, the market is beginning to show signs of a potential reversal. An analysis of on-chain data reveals three independent signals that have preceded powerful rallies in the past. These involve the structure of exchange flows, the market clearing of excess leverage, and the behavior of the largest asset holders.
First Signal: Record Surplus of Withdrawals Over Deposits
A key metric recorded on Binance is a sharp shift in the transaction balance. The share of XRP withdrawal transactions from the exchange reached 54.5%, the highest level since July 2024. This figure exceeded the previous peak of 53.2% recorded on June 20, 2025. At the same time, the share of deposits fell to 45.4%, and the spread between withdrawals and deposits widened to 9.1% compared to 6.5% in June. A similar picture is observed across all centralized exchanges overall, where the share of withdrawals approached 53%. Historically, such dynamics indicate accumulation by large players, who move coins into cold storage, reducing supply on the spot market.
Second Signal: The Market is Clearing Leverage
The second important indicator is the Estimated Leverage Ratio (ELR) on Binance. This metric has dropped to 0.16, one of the lowest levels since November 2024. The current value approaches the April 2026 low of 0.15. The reason for this decline is the mass liquidation of futures positions triggered by the correction, which mechanically pulled down open interest. Such a "clearing" of the market from excess leverage is a classic sign of the end of a correction phase. In 2024, with the XRP price around $0.40 and ELR approaching 0.05, this was followed by a rally of over 790%. The situation is now repeating, albeit with less extreme values.
Third Signal: Whales Lie Low
The third signal comes from the behavior of large holders. The 30-day outflow of whale XRP volumes from Binance has decreased to approximately 885.1 million coins—the lowest level in over two months. This is a sharp slowdown in the transfer of large assets from the exchange. On one hand, high whale outflows are traditionally interpreted as preparation for long-term storage. On the other hand, the current lull may indicate a wait-and-see stance by large players, who are in no hurry to sell or actively accumulate. Low whale activity, combined with a narrow XRP price range, points to consolidation before a potential impulsive move.
My Conclusion as an Analyst: The simultaneous emergence of three historically significant patterns—record outflows from exchanges, leverage clearing, and whale inactivity—creates a foundation for a potential reversal. However, it is important to understand that the market has changed, and blindly copying past scenarios is a path to mistakes. The coincidence of signals is a powerful argument in favor of a bullish scenario, but not a guarantee. The key trigger for realizing the potential will be the emergence of a new catalyst capable of moving XRP out of the consolidation zone.