Is XRP finding a bottom? Three on-chain signals point to a trend reversal after a 70% crash
After a massive correction in which the XRP price lost more than 70% of its all-time highs, the market appears to be showing the first signs of stabilization. A comprehensive analysis of on-chain data has revealed three independent signals that have preceded powerful rallies of the asset in the past. However, as practice shows, the repetition of historical patterns does not guarantee future growth.
Record Surplus of Withdrawals Over Deposits
The first and perhaps most noticeable signal is a sharp shift in the structure of transactions on Binance. The share of XRP withdrawal transactions from the exchange has reached 54.5%, the highest level since July 2024. For comparison, the previous peak of 53.2% was recorded on June 20, 2025. At the same time, the share of deposits has fallen to 45.4%, and the spread between withdrawals and deposits has widened to 9.1%, noticeably higher than the June figure of 6.5%.
This dynamic is observed not only on Binance but across all centralized exchanges overall, where the share of withdrawals has reached 53.01%. In the past, a similar configuration, recorded on June 20, 2025, preceded a rise in XRP from $2.11 to $3.50 — nearly 66% in one month. It is important to understand that these data reflect a shift in the structure of transactions, not a guarantee of an immediate price increase.
Market Deleveraging: A Historical Precedent
The second signal comes from an analysis of the Estimated Leverage Ratio (ELR) on Binance. This indicator, reflecting the level of market leverage, has dropped to 0.16 — one of the lowest levels since November 2024. It is approaching the April 2026 low of 0.15, which technically means a massive cleansing of excess leverage from the market.
The reason for this decline is the reduction in futures positions, many of which were liquidated during the correction, mechanically pulling down open interest as well. In 2024, a similar situation occurred when the XRP price was around $0.40, with the ELR approaching 0.05. That deleveraging was followed by a price increase of more than 790%. The current phase of deleveraging is a critically important stage that makes the market healthier and more predictable for future movements.
Whales Lie Low: Outflows from Large Holders Hit a Minimum
The third, equally important signal is a sharp decline in outflows of large XRP holders from Binance. Over a 30-day period, this indicator has fallen to approximately 885.1 million coins, the lowest level in more than two months. This reflects a notable slowdown in the movement of large assets from the exchange.
High whale outflows typically indicate a shift by investors toward long-term storage, while low outflows may point to reduced activity. In this case, the slowdown coincides with a narrow price range for XRP, signaling a wait-and-see stance among major players as they await new catalysts. By itself, this signal is neutral, but in the context of the other two, it points to market consolidation.
My analysis: The coincidence of all three signals — a record surplus of withdrawals, deleveraging, and whale inactivity — forms a powerful bullish foundation. However, the market is currently in an accumulation phase, and an external catalyst is needed for a full reversal. Without it, XRP may continue to consolidate near current levels before making its next significant move.