Three on-chain signals hint at a reversal of XRP after a deep correction
After falling more than 70% from its all-time highs, XRP is showing several on-chain signals that have historically preceded powerful rallies. Analysis of on-chain metrics indicates that the market structure is undergoing significant changes, reminiscent of scenarios from 2024 and mid-2025.
Three independent indicators tracked by leading analysts point to a possible end to the correction and preparation for a new upward movement. These include a record surplus of withdrawals over deposits, a market purge of excessive leverage, and a sharp decline in activity among large holders.
Withdrawal share on Binance hits highest since July 2024
The first signal comes from exchange flows. On July 17, the share of XRP withdrawal transactions on Binance surged to 54.5%. This is the highest level since July 2024, surpassing the previous peak of 53.2% recorded on June 20, 2025. At the same time, the share of deposits on the exchange fell to 45.4%, widening the gap between withdrawals and deposits to 9.1% compared to 6.5% in June.
It is important to emphasize that a similar pattern was observed on June 20, 2025, when XRP was trading around $2.11. A month later, by July 21, the asset had soared to $3.50, showing a gain of approximately 66%. However, experts warn that the current percentages reflect only the number of transactions, not volumes or net flows, so this is more of a shift in transaction structure rather than a guarantee of growth.
Market deleveraging — similar to before a 790% rally
The second important signal is the decline in the estimated leverage ratio (ELR) on Binance. This indicator currently stands at 0.16, one of the lowest levels since November 2024 and approaching the April 2026 low of 0.15. Such a low ELR value indicates a significant reduction in futures positions, some of which were liquidated during the correction, mechanically dragging down open interest as well.
This market purge of excessive leverage is a crucial phase of the correction. An excess of accumulated leverage weakens the market's foundation and makes price movements less predictable. In 2024, when the ELR approached 0.05 at a price of around $0.40, this purge was followed by an XRP rally of more than 790%. Now the scenario is repeating, but at higher price levels.
Whale outflows from Binance drop to a two-month low
The third signal is a sharp slowdown in outflows of large XRP holders (whales) from Binance. Over a 30-day period, this indicator has fallen to approximately 885.1 million coins, the lowest value in more than two months. This reflects a notable slowdown in the transfer of large assets off the exchange.
High whale outflows typically indicate a shift by large investors toward long-term storage, while low outflows suggest reduced activity. The current slowdown coincides with XRP's narrow price range, indicating a wait-and-see stance among major players, possibly in anticipation of new market catalysts. The signal itself is neither bullish nor bearish, but it reflects a reduction in the movement of large assets, which could ultimately impact liquidity.
My expert opinion: The coincidence of three historically significant patterns is a strong argument that the bottom of the XRP correction may already be in place. However, relying solely on historical analogies would be imprudent. The market has changed; volumes and liquidity are no longer what they were in 2024. To confirm a reversal, XRP needs to consolidate above a key resistance level and see renewed interest from large capital. For now, we are observing the groundwork being laid, but not the reversal itself.