Analysts note a decline in Bitcoin leverage and a return of buying activity.
The current dynamics of the crypto market indicate a transition into a phase of "neutral or slightly bullish" consolidation. A key signal is a noticeable reduction in leverage and a weakening of short-term selling pressure. This suggests that the market is gradually shedding the excessive speculative overheating observed in previous weeks.
An analysis of fund flows to centralized exchanges shows a moderate but still insufficient level of asset accumulation. Over the past week, net inflows amounted to approximately 2,196 BTC, while over the 14-day period, outflows remained at around 8,197 BTC. This picture points to a volatile phase of liquidity adjustment rather than the formation of a clear directional trend.
Long positions maintain a slight advantage, but excessive optimism and aggressive use of leverage have notably weakened. Meanwhile, open interest in derivatives is gradually increasing, indicating a return of institutional interest without excessive euphoria.
Based on available data, the probability of a positive scenario for Bitcoin is estimated at approximately 55%. To confirm this trend, it is necessary to closely monitor the dynamics of funding volume and the movement of funds to exchange wallets.
Additional Observations
Experts also note the market's gradual absorption of aggressive selling typical of a bearish phase. However, holders are still recording more losses than profits, which is a sign of an early stage of stabilization rather than a full recovery.
Comparing the current market structure with the previous cycle yields interesting parallels. In 2022, the weekly bullish divergence held for 161 days before the start of sustained growth. In the current 2026 cycle, a similar period has already lasted 147 days. It is expected that the correction will end with a new local low, which will become the cycle bottom in the range of $45,000 to $65,000.
An additional positive signal is the fact that from July 13 to July 17, spot Bitcoin ETFs received net inflows of $75.5 million, marking the second consecutive positive week.
My expert opinion: The current situation resembles a classic "accumulation" phase before a major move. The reduction in leverage and the return of buyers amid persistent selling pressure represent a healthy correction that lays the foundation for the next rally. However, until a sustained trend is confirmed, investors should remain cautious and avoid forcing entry into positions.