Bitcoin leverage cooling and buyers returning: the market enters a stabilization phase
The cryptocurrency market is showing a shift in sentiment: excessive optimism and aggressive leverage are fading, giving way to a more balanced dynamic. The current situation is characterized as "neutral or slightly bullish," confirmed by a decrease in leverage and a weakening of short-term selling pressure.
Analysis of inflows to centralized exchanges shows moderate accumulation of the asset: over the past week, net inflows amounted to approximately 2,196 BTC, while over a 14-day period, outflows remain at around 8,197 BTC. This mixed picture indicates a volatile phase of liquidity adjustment rather than the formation of a clear trend. Long positions still hold a slight advantage, but excessive leverage and over-optimism have significantly weakened. Meanwhile, open interest in derivatives is gradually recovering.
Probability of a Positive Scenario
Based on current data, the probability of a positive development for the Bitcoin market is estimated at around 55%. To confirm this trend, it is necessary to closely monitor funding volume and exchange flows. If these indicators continue to improve, we may see more confident growth.
Absorption of Bearish Pressure
Analysts note the market's gradual absorption of aggressive selling typical of a bearish phase. However, holders are still recording more losses than profits, which is a sign of an early stabilization stage rather than confirmed recovery. This is an important signal: the market has stopped falling but is not yet ready for confident growth.
A comparison with the previous cycle shows an interesting parallel: the weekly bullish divergence in 2022 held for 161 days before sustained growth began, while in 2026, a similar period has already lasted 147 days. In both cases, the divergence ended with a new local low, which became the cycle bottom. Estimates suggest this level could range from $45,000 to $65,000.
An additional positive signal is the inflow of funds into spot Bitcoin ETFs: from July 13 to 17, net inflows amounted to $75.5 million, marking the second consecutive positive week. This indicates the return of institutional buyers, who likely see current levels as attractive entry points.
Expert commentary from Cryptalist: The market is going through a "regrouping" phase — leverage is decreasing, and buyers are returning, but without the previous euphoria. If Bitcoin can hold above the $45,000–$50,000 zone and confirm this level with volume, we will likely see the start of a new growth cycle. However, it is too early to talk about a full reversal — the key indicator will remain the dynamics of exchange inflows and funding volumes.