Analysts record a cooling of bitcoin leverage and signs of returning buying activity.
A shift in sentiment is observed in the cryptocurrency market: excessive leverage is fading, and selling pressure is easing. My on-chain data analysis confirms that the market is entering a phase of "neutral or slightly bullish" consolidation. This is not a sharp reversal, but rather a cautious recovery after a period of high volatility.
A key indicator is the dynamics of inflows to centralized exchanges. Over the past week, the net inflow amounted to approximately 2,196 BTC, indicating moderate accumulation. However, over a 14-day period, we see an outflow of about 8,197 BTC. This pattern is characteristic of a liquidity adjustment phase, where the market seeks a new balance, rather than forming a clear trend.
Long positions maintain a slight advantage, but excessive optimism and leverage have significantly decreased. Meanwhile, open interest in derivatives is gradually rising, pointing to a return of institutional interest without the previous speculative frenzy. Based on current data, I estimate the probability of a positive scenario for Bitcoin at roughly 55%. To confirm this forecast, it is necessary to closely monitor funding rates and exchange flows—these are the main triggers in the coming weeks.
Additional Stabilization Signals
Analysts from Bitcoin Vector note that aggressive selling, typical of a bearish phase, is gradually being absorbed by the market. However, holders are still realizing more losses than profits. This is a classic sign of an early stabilization stage, where the market is "digesting" the previous decline but is not yet ready for a confident recovery.
An interesting parallel is drawn by a trader under the pseudonym gum. He compares the current market structure to the 2022 cycle. Back then, a weekly bullish divergence held for 161 days before sustained growth began. In 2026, a similar period has already lasted 147 days. According to his version, the correction should end with a new local low, which will become the cycle bottom. He estimates this level to be in the range of $45,000 to $65,000.
An additional positive signal is the dynamics of spot Bitcoin ETFs. From July 13 to 17, these products saw net inflows of $75.5 million, marking the second consecutive positive week. This indicates a resurgence of interest from traditional investors.
My conclusion: The market is going through a phase of cleansing from excessive leverage and speculative noise. Although a full recovery is not yet confirmed, the combination of easing selling pressure, moderate accumulation, and the return of institutional capital creates a foundation for a potential reversal. The key observation zone remains the $45,000–$65,000 range, where the bottom of the current cycle is likely to form.