Whale hunting: who is accumulating Bitcoin while retail panics, and what will happen to the market
The third decade of July 2026 finds the Bitcoin market in a state of deep internal division. The price has stabilized near the $64,200 mark, but beneath the surface, multidirectional processes are boiling, rarely seen simultaneously. While small and medium-sized holders are panicking and dumping their coins, the largest players—the so-called whales—are displaying rare aggression in accumulation.
Whales are buying everything being sold
According to on-chain analytics data, large holders have added 66,700 BTC to their wallets over the recent period. This buying spree occurs against the backdrop of active asset redistribution from retail investors. Such behavior is a classic sign of institutional accumulation: whales are absorbing the liquidity created by panic selling from less experienced participants.
An important nuance: sustained accumulation of coins by large players can significantly reduce the volume of available supply on the market. When this coincides with aggressive distribution by small participants, a classic scenario of "retail capitulation and smart money buying" takes shape.
ETFs are restoring confidence
Additional confirmation of the shift in sentiment comes from capital flows into Bitcoin funds. On Friday, inflows into spot BTC-ETFs totaled +$132.3 million, with IBIT leading the way. This marks the fourth consecutive "green" day. Ether ETFs also returned to positive territory, showing +$36.7 million.
The Fear and Greed Index has risen to 29 points—the first exit from the "extreme fear" zone in recent times. A psychological turning point is evident.
Stablecoins are leaving exchanges: what does this mean?
At the same time, we are witnessing a massive outflow of stablecoins from centralized platforms. Over 30 days, USDT reserves on Binance have decreased by approximately $1.55 billion, and on Bybit by another $786 million. The total outflow is approaching $2.3 billion.
The reasons for this movement are not yet clear-cut. The main hypotheses include:
- Migration of European users due to MiCA regulatory requirements;
- Weakening inflow of fresh capital to exchanges;
- Transfer of stablecoins to self-custody and yield-generating DeFi protocols.
The final destination of these funds remains unconfirmed, but the very fact of such a large-scale outflow signals that large holders prefer not to keep liquidity on exchanges, but are preparing for something more strategic.
Forecast and my assessment
If chipmaker stocks stabilize, Bitcoin could well return to the $65,000 level. However, the high correlation with the Nasdaq remains a risk factor: a renewed sell-off in the stock market could drag BTC back to $62,500, regardless of on-chain flows.
My conclusion: we are witnessing a classic redistribution phase. Whales are accumulating Bitcoin while retail capitulates. History shows that such periods often precede significant movements. The market is pricing in about a 90% probability that the Fed will hold rates steady at its July 28-29 meeting—this adds some certainty. But gold, meanwhile, is updating highs near $4,017, continuing to outpace Bitcoin as a safe-haven asset. This is a reminder: BTC has still not become "digital gold" in the eyes of conservative capital. However, current signals suggest that large players see long-term value in it, and this is worth considering.