Bitcoin storms $65,000: analysis of driving forces and hidden risks
After a period of prolonged correction and record outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs, the market has finally seen a long-awaited bounce. On Monday, the price of the leading cryptocurrency once again surpassed the psychologically important mark of $65,000. However, as my analysis shows, behind this seemingly optimistic move lies a more complex and ambiguous picture.
Geopolitical Factor and Resumption of Inflows
The key catalyst for the growth was hopes for de-escalation of tensions in the Middle East. Signals about a possible resumption of negotiations between the US and Iran were instantly reflected in investor sentiment. Over the past week, US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net inflows of $75.7 million, marking the second consecutive week of positive dynamics. This suggests that institutional players perceive the reduction in geopolitical risks as a trigger to return to the asset.
Nevertheless, the scale of this recovery still looks quite modest against the backdrop of previous losses. Total inflows over the last two weeks amounted to only $273.1 million — just 3.3% of the $8.2 billion that investors withdrew over the previous two months. June became the worst month in the history of Bitcoin ETFs: outflows reached $4.5 billion, breaking the anti-record of February 2025 ($3.56 billion). The lion's share of these funds — nearly 79% — came from BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT). Currently, all ETFs manage about $77 billion, compared to $104 billion in mid-May.
Bearish View: Citi's Forecast and Lessons from Gold
Against this data, analysts are divided. Senior Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Eric Balchunas draws parallels with the history of the gold ETF GLD. In 2011, its assets collapsed from $76 billion to $22 billion before beginning a multi-year recovery to the current $190 billion. In his view, Bitcoin ETFs are following a similar scenario: rapid growth, painful drawdowns, and a slow recovery requiring patience.
However, Citigroup is far more skeptical. The bank lowered its 12-month price forecast for Bitcoin from $112,000 to $82,000, marking the second downgrade this year (the initial forecast was $143,000). Moreover, Citi analysts predict zero inflows into ETFs over the next year, citing sluggish US crypto regulation and weak institutional demand.
My Expertise: A View Beyond the Horizon
While the market oscillates between hope for a geopolitical truce and fear of regulatory uncertainty, I would advise investors to look at more fundamental things. Bond markets are already pricing in a new risk of a Fed rate hike, which traditionally puts pressure on risk assets. As the history of gold has shown, major movements in safe-haven assets form not over days or weeks, but over multi-year cycles. The current bounce is certainly a positive signal, but for a sustained bullish trend, we need not only geopolitical hopes but also concrete steps in regulation and macroeconomic policy.