Bitcoin has returned above $65,000: what's behind the rebound and why it's too early to celebrate
After two months of aggressive sell-offs, Bitcoin has finally managed to hold above the $65,000 mark. Over the past 24 hours, the price has risen by 1.4%, and over the week by 5.2%. However, behind this seemingly confident recovery lies an extremely fragile foundation.
The key driver of the growth has been geopolitics. Hopes for a resumption of negotiations between the US and Iran have sharply reduced tensions in the Middle East, which traditionally boosts demand for risk assets. It was this factor, rather than institutional demand, that served as the trigger for the rebound.
Nevertheless, data on US spot Bitcoin ETFs paints a very different picture. Yes, over the past week, the funds recorded an inflow of $197.4 million, and the total inflow over two weeks amounted to $75.7 million. But this is just a drop in the ocean compared to the massive outflow of $8.2 billion we saw in May and June. June was the worst month in ETF history: $4.5 billion was withdrawn from the instruments, with 79% of that amount coming from BlackRock's IBIT fund.
Gold Scenario or Zero Forecast?
Currently, assets under management for Bitcoin ETFs stand at about $77 billion — 26% below the May peak of $104 billion. Leading Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Eric Balchunas draws parallels with the gold fund GLD, which in 2011 experienced a collapse from $76 billion to $22 billion, followed by a multi-year but steady recovery to the current $190 billion.
However, Citigroup is far less optimistic. The bank has lowered its 12-month target for Bitcoin to $82,000 (from $112,000) and forecasts zero inflows into ETFs over the next year. The reasons are weak regulation and a lack of interest from institutional investors.
My expert assessment: The current rebound is a classic "correction on expectations," not a trend change. The market remains squeezed between geopolitical hopes and real macroeconomic pressure. Bond markets are already pricing in a new risk of a Fed rate hike, which is a bearish signal for Bitcoin. If ETF inflows do not start to genuinely increase, we risk seeing a retest of the $60,000 level.