Jamie Dimon warns: why he is not buying the S&P 500 and US Treasury bonds
The American market is showing impressive results, and JPMorgan reported record quarterly profits. However, the head of the financial giant, Jamie Dimon, is in no hurry to invest capital in the S&P 500 index and is ignoring long-term government bonds.
In a recent interview that came out right after the financial report was published, Dimon gave several signals for retail investors. When directly asked if he was ready to buy the S&P 500 at current prices, he avoided a definitive answer, emphasizing that he acts selectively, evaluating individual companies rather than the market as a whole. Moreover, he admitted that he hasn't bought any stocks recently. When asked for clarification on whether markets are pricing in a perfect outcome, Dimon noted that the picture is decent, but far from ideal.
He was even more categorical regarding long-term bonds. When asked if he was ready to buy them, he gave a concise answer: "Personally, no. I wouldn't buy them."
Why is Dimon avoiding bonds?
The reason lies in interest rates. According to the JPMorgan chief, even if inflation falls to the target 2%, the yield on 10-year Treasury notes should stay at 4–4.5%, and short-term rates in the 3.25–3.5% range. Markets are already near these levels, meaning there is virtually no room for bond prices to rise. Dimon also linked bond risks to the growing budget deficit, recalling the 1970s when deficits and inflation rose in tandem, and inflation surged from 3.5% to 11%.
Additionally, the bank's head pointed to a number of tectonic risks that, in his words, "are probably greater than commonly assumed." These include the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, tensions with Iran, rising global military spending, and the US-China rivalry. However, Dimon acknowledged that the global economy has become more resilient and less dependent on energy resources, but this does not guarantee that a sharp scenario shift won't occur at some point.
Record profits and measured statements
JPMorgan reported a net profit of $21.2 billion in the second quarter of 2026—41% higher than a year earlier. This figure became a record among all quarterly results of American banks. Revenue from equity trading rose 86% year-over-year, reaching $6 billion. Dimon called the current situation nearly ideal for the banking sector, noting high trading volumes and rising asset values, but warned that such a phase will not last forever.
My expert view: Dimon's skepticism is not just caution but a signal of overheating in traditional markets. For crypto investors, this is an indirect positive: if the world's largest bank reduces investments in stocks and bonds, some capital will inevitably seek alternative havens, including digital assets. However, I repeat: in conditions of high uncertainty, even bitcoin could face volatility if the "tectonic" risks Dimon mentions materialize.