Bitcoin has updated its monthly high: ETFs and short liquidations set the tone
On July 21, the first cryptocurrency reached the $66,400 mark, updating a local high for the first time since June 17. This surge resulted from a powerful inflow of institutional capital and aggressive short position compression in the derivatives market.
The key driver was sustained interest in US spot bitcoin ETFs. Over five consecutive trading sessions, the funds attracted approximately $727.3 million, and on July 20, net inflows amounted to $226.9 million — the best result since July 6. This streak became the longest since the period of April 30 to May 5, when a six-day inflow was recorded.
The breakout of resistance in the $65,000–$67,000 zone, formed back in the first quarter, triggered a cascade of liquidations. Over the past 24 hours, positions worth $241.69 million were forcibly closed on the crypto market, of which $182.5 million were shorts. This is a classic "bear squeeze" scenario, where excessive short positioning amplifies the upward momentum.
Technically, bitcoin has firmly established itself above an important level. As trader Jelle noted, after overcoming the $65,000–$67,000 resistance, the path to $70,000 becomes virtually open. The market is now testing the psychological resilience of participants, and if ETF inflows continue, we will see an assault on this level in the coming days.
However, it is worth noting that not all market participants are optimistic. Technical analysis veteran Peter Brandt predicts the end of the current bear cycle only by October 4. He allows for bitcoin to fall below $50,000 — into the $40,000–$50,000 range, noting that "markets form bottoms not amid neutral sentiment, but on panic and volume." In his view, the current optimism among participants does not align with the conditions of final capitulation.
My view: The market is currently in an interesting phase — institutional demand via ETFs clearly outweighs retail uncertainty. However, I would not rule out sharp corrections: the accumulation by large whales (according to CryptoQuant) against the backdrop of sales from medium-sized wallets creates a fragile balance. A breakout above $70,000 would be a powerful bullish signal, but local pullbacks are inevitable here.